Tensions in the Middle East have escalated dramatically after Iran launched a massive missile attack on Israel. While acknowledging Israel’s right to respond, the United States is actively trying to influence the nature of that response, particularly warning against any attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
President Joe Biden, following consultations with G7 leaders, has made it clear that Israel’s retaliation must be proportionate. “All seven of us agree that they have a right to respond, but they should respond in proportion,” Biden stated, without elaborating on the specifics of such a response.
There is a widespread understanding that any retaliatory strikes on Iran’s nuclear or oil infrastructure could plunge the region into further chaos. However, Israel has yet to announce a decision on its course of action. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has engaged with his counterparts in France, Britain, Germany, and Italy to convey this message of caution.
In Washington and elsewhere, a sense of apprehension prevails as officials anxiously await Israel’s response. The Israeli public is pressuring Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to act decisively, raising concerns that he might be tempted to launch a major strike against Iran, potentially escalating the conflict.
This situation is particularly sensitive following Israel’s recent actions in Lebanon and Gaza. The assassination of Hezbollah’s leader last week and the suppression of Hamas in Gaza have raised questions about Netanyahu’s willingness to escalate the conflict with Iran. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has called for a decisive strike to cripple Iran’s nuclear program, adding to the pressure on Netanyahu.
The US is actively working to prevent a full-blown regional war. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller emphasized, “We have made clear for some time that we do not want to see a full-blown regional escalation.” He reiterated that Israel has the right to respond but stressed that “we don’t want to see any action that would lead to a full-blown regional war.”
Despite concerns that US influence over Israel is waning, Miller refuted any notion that Washington has lost leverage. Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, notes that US pressure played a role in Israel’s limited response to Iran’s first attack in April. However, Toossi acknowledges that the current situation is more serious due to the scale of Iran’s latest attack.
While Biden reached out to Netanyahu immediately after Iran’s first attack, he has yet to do so this time. He has, however, maintained communication with Israeli officials and stated that he will likely speak with Netanyahu soon. Nevertheless, Israel’s actions in Gaza have solidified its position as the driving force in this conflict, leaving the US in a reactive posture. Washington’s reluctance to resort to military aid as a means of influencing Israel’s response further highlights the challenge of managing the situation.
Ultimately, the outcome depends largely on Israel’s response. Toossi points out that both Netanyahu and Iran are taking significant gambles, with the potential for the situation to escalate into a regional war.
