Wall Street is in a holding pattern as traders anxiously await Friday’s release of the non-farm payroll data, a critical indicator of the US economy’s health. The index futures traded moderately lower early Thursday, reflecting a cautious sentiment. While the S&P 500 has enjoyed gains in all but one month this year, the momentum is facing a potential air pocket, this time driven by geopolitical tensions and the ongoing dockworkers’ strike.
The weekly jobless claims data, along with the volatile situation in the Middle East and the ongoing dockworkers’ strike, are key focal points for traders. Oil’s sustained upward climb could keep energy stocks buoyant, and artificial intelligence powerhouse Nvidia Corp. NVDA traded higher in premarket. Meanwhile, electric-vehicle stocks have shown signs of deceleration.
In premarket trading on Thursday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY moved down 0.30% to $567.15, and the Invesco QQQ ETF QQQ slipped 0.39% to $480.09, according to Benzinga Pro data.
A Look Back at Wednesday’s Session
U.S. stocks closed Wednesday’s session with marginal gains, overcoming initial jitters triggered by a stronger-than-expected private payrolls report and the ongoing headwinds of Middle East tensions and the dockworkers’ strike. After recouping early losses, the averages moved in a narrow range around the unchanged line before ending slightly higher.
Seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended in the red, while energy stocks rallied strongly, and IT stocks found moderate buying interest. Utility and financial stocks saw marginal gains.
Analyst Insights on Friday’s Data
The non-farm payrolls report due on Friday is expected to show job gains of 150,000 for September, up from 142,000 in August. JPMorgan Trading Desk predicts a volatile Friday, with the S&P 500 Index potentially moving either side of the flat line in a range of a 2% decline to a 1.5% gain depending on how the numbers pan out.
* Job gains over 20,000 – flat to 0.5% gain
* 160,000-20,000 – 1%-1.5% gain
* 140,000-160,000 – 0.75%-1.25%
* 110,000 – 140,000 – 0.5%-1.5% drop
* less than 110,000 – 1.25%-2% drop
Upcoming Economic Data to Watch
The Labor Department will release the weekly jobless claims data at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Economists, on average, expect the number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits to come in at 220,000 in the week ended Sept. 28, up from 218,000 in the previous reporting week.
S&P Global is due to release its final service sector manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m. EDT. The flash reading released in mid-September came in at 55.4, up from 54.2 in August.
The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing PMI, due at 10 a.m. EDT, is expected at 51.7 in September, almost flattish at 51.5 reported for August.
The Commerce Department will release the factory goods orders report at 10 a.m. EDT. The consensus estimate calls for unchanged orders for August relative to September when orders climbed 5% month-over-month.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is due to moderate a discussion with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic at 10:40 a.m. EDT. The Treasury will auction four- and eight-week bills at 11:30 a.m. EDT.
Stocks in Focus
Levi Strauss & Co. LEVI slumped nearly 11% in premarket trading on the company’s quarterly results released after the market close on Wednesday. AngioDynamics, Inc. ANGO and Constellation Brands, Inc. STZ are due to release their quarterly results ahead of the market opening.
Tesla, Inc. TSLA fell over 1.50%, extending its slide from Wednesday, and most electric-vehicle stocks, including Rivian Automotive, Inc. RIVN, Lucid Group, Inc. LCID, and ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. CHPT all traded down about 2%. Plug Power Inc. PLUG moved down 1.85% following a negative analyst action.
Commodities, Bonds, and Global Equity Markets
Crude oil futures continued their upward climb amid intensifying Middle East tensions, while gold futures fell modestly. Bitcoin BTC/USD declined over 1% below the $61K mark. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 2.4 points to 3.809%.
Most Asian markets retreated, barring the Japanese, Australian, New Zealand, and Malaysian markers, while China and South Korea were closed for public holidays. The major European markets lost ground in early trading.
