The 2024 presidential race is heating up, and the question of whether Vice President Kamala Harris should focus on Florida is a hot topic. Florida, once considered a crucial swing state, has shifted rightward, with Donald Trump winning decisively in both 2016 and 2020.
Eli McKown-Dawson, an election analyst at Silver Bulletin, Nate Silver’s forecasting model, notes that Republicans hold significant power in Florida, controlling both legislative chambers and not having elected a Democratic senator since 2012. This leads many to believe that Florida is a lost cause for Harris. However, Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, offers a more nuanced perspective.
While he acknowledges that Harris’s chances of winning Florida are slim – currently at 21%, or a one-in-five chance – he emphasizes the high reward associated with success. Florida boasts a whopping 30 electoral votes, twice as many as Michigan and more than Pennsylvania and Wisconsin combined. This makes it a tempting target, even with a lower probability of victory.
Silver points to recent polls that show a tightening race in Florida, suggesting that Harris’s presence on the ticket has shifted the dynamic. While these polls may not be perfect indicators, they offer a glimmer of hope for the Democratic campaign. He also highlights the significant electoral advantage Florida offers, making it the seventh-likeliest “tipping point” state in his model, even with a less even race compared to places like Nevada.
Ultimately, the decision of whether to invest heavily in Florida comes down to a strategic calculation. While the odds are stacked against Harris, the potential for a major victory in a state with such significant electoral weight makes it a gamble worth considering.
