The United States could be witnessing a historic moment in its decades-long battle against obesity. Recent data suggests that 2020 may have marked the peak of obesity rates in America, with a potential decline beginning that year. This echoes the historic moment in 1963 when cigarette sales in the U.S. hit their peak before falling.
Economist Justin Wolfers highlighted this significant shift on social media, stating, “From the Department of Things Really Are Getting Better: The U.S. obesity rate may have peaked, and for the first time in a long time, it fell last year.” Wolfers credits this change to the emergence of new weight loss drugs, saying, “Chalk up another one to progress.” John Burn-Murdoch, writing for the Financial Times, suggests that one in eight U.S. adults have used these drugs, with 6% currently taking them.
The potential catalyst for this unprecedented decline is a new generation of diabetes and weight loss drugs, including Ozempic and Wegovy. These medications, which have shown remarkable results in clinical trials, are now being used by a significant portion of the U.S. population.
As the U.S. leads this potential obesity decline, other countries are likely to follow suit. In Denmark, home to Novo Nordisk, the creator of Ozempic and Wegovy, 3% of adults were using these drugs by the end of 2023, coinciding with a slowdown in obesity rate increases.
The decline in obesity rates is significant in the context of recent developments in the pharmaceutical industry. Roche Holdings AG has fast-tracked its obesity drug development, aiming for over $3 billion in sales potential. This move underscores the growing market for effective weight loss treatments. Additionally, Eli Lilly and Co is exploring broader applications for its weight-loss drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, targeting individuals with a lower BMI.
Despite the promising results, a recent study reveals a gap between clinical trial promises and real-world outcomes for drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy. Further research is needed to fully understand the long-term impact of these medications and ensure they are being used safely and effectively.
