A recent poll by Taiwan’s Institute for National Defence and Security Research indicates that most Taiwanese citizens feel a Chinese invasion is unlikely within the next five years. The survey, which included approximately 1,200 participants, sheds light on the current sentiment in Taiwan regarding potential military threats from China.
The findings revealed that 61% of respondents consider an attack by China to be “unlikely or very unlikely” in the near future. Despite this perception, many Taiwanese still view China’s territorial ambitions as a serious threat, according to researcher Christina Chen. While immediate invasion fears are low, the survey also found that over 67% of Taiwanese are prepared to resist if an attack occurs. However, opinions are mixed regarding the capability of Taiwan’s military to defend the island. Moreover, sentiments about U.S. involvement in Taiwan’s defense vary, with 74% expecting indirect support but only 52% believing in direct military intervention. Researcher Lee Kuan-chen emphasized the importance of transparency in Taiwan-U.S. security cooperation to effectively manage public expectations.
The geopolitical dynamics surrounding Taiwan significantly impact the global semiconductor industry. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM), a leading player in this sector, has seen its stock price surge by 96% over the past year, driven by rising demand for AI chips. The company is advancing its 2-nanometer technology, positioning itself at least a decade ahead of China, as noted by Taiwan’s National Science and Technology Council. In response to escalating geopolitical tensions, Taiwanese chip firms, including Alchip Techs, are expanding operations in Japan, thereby reshaping the global semiconductor landscape. This strategic move aligns with U.S. efforts to limit China’s advancements in cutting-edge semiconductor technology.
Recent political developments, such as U.S. President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, have also affected Taiwanese stocks. Companies like United Microelectronics Corp. (UMC) and ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX) experienced declines in the U.S. pre-market, highlighting the sensitivity of Taiwanese firms to geopolitical shifts.
