Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has laid out a clear path for Bitcoin to reach $80,000 by the end of 2024. In a recent memo, Hougan reaffirms his prediction from last year, outlining key factors that could drive the cryptocurrency to new heights. This prediction, however, is contingent on several crucial developments, primarily related to politics, the economy, and the crypto space itself.
On the political front, Hougan argues that a non-Democratic sweep in the upcoming U.S. election would be beneficial for Bitcoin. He believes that the cryptocurrency thrives when politicians stay out of its way. Polymarket data suggests a 20% chance of a Democratic sweep, implying a higher probability of a scenario favorable for Bitcoin.
Economically, Hougan believes two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and additional global stimulus, particularly from China, could propel Bitcoin’s growth. He highlights the market’s anticipation of further easing from the Federal Reserve and additional fiscal stimulus from China, setting the stage for potential economic tailwinds for Bitcoin.
Finally, Hougan emphasizes the importance of avoiding major negative surprises in the crypto space, such as significant hacks or lawsuits. He believes that a smooth year, free from such shocks, could pave the way for new all-time highs for Bitcoin.
Further fueling Bitcoin’s potential rise, Hougan suggests that a broader rally in the altcoin market could push Bitcoin towards $100,000 in a short period. He draws parallels to the “DeFi Summer” of 2020, where a wave of excitement across the crypto sector propelled prices upward.
Hougan remains confident in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, pointing to its strong performance in 2024 so far, marked by a 49% increase and significant institutional adoption. He concludes that these factors, coupled with the favorable conditions outlined, strongly suggest that Bitcoin could reach $80,000 (and possibly even higher) in 2024, almost regardless of news developments.
