Piper Sandler analyst Matt Farrell recently conducted a survey of around 13,500 teenagers to gauge their interest in upgrading to Apple’s latest iPhone, the iPhone 16. While early pre-order data suggests that demand for the iPhone 16 might be lower than expected, Farrell’s survey paints a slightly different picture.
The survey found that 22% of teens are planning to upgrade to an iPhone 16 this Fall/Winter. This is a slight decrease from the 23% who planned to upgrade in Fall 2023 and the 24% who planned to upgrade in Fall 2022. However, it’s worth noting that this figure is an increase from the 20% reported in the Spring 2024 survey.
Farrell’s survey also reveals that 87% of teens currently own an iPhone, which aligns with historical trends. Furthermore, 88% of teens expect their next phone to be an iPhone, further reinforcing the dominance of Apple in the teen market. Despite this, the analyst notes that only about 30% of teens intend to upgrade any Apple hardware in the next six months, suggesting that Apple’s product offerings might not be as compelling as they once were.
The survey also sheds light on the popularity of other Apple products among teens. Over 70% of teenagers own AirPods, with 25% planning to purchase them in the next six months. Additionally, more than 30% of teens own an Apple Watch or iPad.
Farrell maintains a Neutral rating on Apple, with a price target of $225. He points out that the average iPhone owned by teens is approximately three generations behind the iPhone 16, suggesting a potential for future upgrades as these older models become outdated.
Despite some concerns regarding lower-than-expected iPhone 16 demand, the survey highlights the continued strong position of Apple products, particularly AirPods, among teenagers.
