If you’re searching for a stock with a proven track record of exceeding earnings expectations and a strong likelihood of continuing this trend in its next quarterly report, you should consider BancFirst (BANF). This Oklahoma financial services holding company, operating within the Zacks Banks – Southwest industry, has demonstrated a consistent pattern of beating earnings estimates, particularly in the past two reports. The average surprise for these two quarters was a significant 7.91%.
In its most recent quarter, BancFirst reported earnings of $1.51 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.42 per share. This represented a positive surprise of 6.34%. In the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $1.37 per share but actually delivered earnings of $1.50 per share, exceeding expectations by 9.49%.
This impressive history of exceeding estimates has led to a recent upward trend in analysts’ expectations for BancFirst. The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the company is currently positive, a strong indicator of an earnings beat, especially when considered alongside its favorable Zacks Rank.
Extensive research reveals that stocks exhibiting a combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better have a remarkable track record of exceeding expectations, achieving a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. This suggests that out of ten stocks with this combination, seven could potentially surpass the consensus estimate.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter. The Most Accurate Estimate is a refined version of the Zacks Consensus, reflecting recent adjustments and potentially offering a more accurate representation of current market sentiment. The rationale is that analysts revising their estimates shortly before an earnings release often have access to the latest information, which could be more precise than previous predictions.
BancFirst currently boasts an Earnings ESP of +0.32%, indicating a recent surge in analysts’ optimism regarding the company’s earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP, combined with the stock’s Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), strongly suggests that another earnings beat might be on the horizon.
It’s essential to acknowledge that a negative Earnings ESP diminishes its predictive power, although it does not automatically imply an earnings miss. Many companies surpass the consensus EPS estimate, but this is not the sole factor driving share gains. Conversely, some stocks might remain stable even if they fall short of the consensus estimate. Therefore, it is crucial to assess a company’s Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to enhance the likelihood of successful investment decisions.
