On Sunday, Lithuanians voted in elections poised to bring about a new government while reaffirming the country’s strong commitment to supporting Ukraine and enhancing its defense capabilities. With a population of 2.8 million, this Baltic nation has been closely monitoring threats from its neighbor, Russia, amid fears that it could become a target if Moscow succeeds in its war against Ukraine.
The center-left Social Democratic Party, which last held power from 2012 to 2016, is on track to replace the ruling center-right Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats. Opinion polls suggest that the Social Democrats could secure around 20% of the vote, leading 14 other parties and coalitions. The governing conservatives are projected to receive about 15%, with six or seven parties likely surpassing the electoral threshold.
Despite a potential shift in leadership, experts expect little change in Lithuania’s foreign policy. Political analyst Linas Kontrimas noted to AFP, “There is no real alternative to what Lithuania chose 20 years ago,” referring to its integration into the European Union and NATO.
President Gitanas Nauseda, re-elected in May with support from the Social Democrats, is believed to favor a new government. Throughout the campaign, he met with leaders of all parliamentary parties except the conservatives, with whom he has frequently clashed. “I voted for the authorities to work together, not against each other, to solve the problems of the Lithuanian people,” Nauseda remarked after casting his early vote, though he did not disclose his party preference.
The Social Democrats have proposed a platform focusing on progressive taxation, taxing luxury goods, boosting funding for social services, reducing taxes for families, increasing pensions, and providing VAT relief on food.
The elections have also been marked by controversy surrounding Nemunas Dawn, a new populist party led by former MP Remigijus Zemaitaitis, projected to gain parliamentary seats. Zemaitaitis resigned last year after facing criticism for alleged anti-Semitic remarks and is currently on trial for incitement to hatred, which he denies, claiming he was criticizing the Israeli government’s policies in Gaza.
Most political parties have pledged to exclude Zemaitaitis from any governing coalition. “We face not only a geopolitical threat but also an internal political threat,” stated Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, leader of the conservatives, after casting his vote.
The first round of Sunday’s election will allocate approximately half of the 141 parliamentary seats through proportional representation, with remaining seats decided in runoff rounds on October 27.
Lithuania’s historical memory of the Holocaust remains a contentious issue, as 90 percent of its Jewish population of about 208,000 was killed during World War II, often with local collaboration.
While the election is likely to bring changes in leadership, Lithuania’s steadfast support for Ukraine and robust defense policies are expected to persist. However, the rise of a populist party led by a controversial figure adds complexity to the political landscape.
