Australia’s political landscape is shifting, as a new Newspoll conducted for The Australian newspaper reveals a growing lead for the conservative opposition coalition. This marks the first time they have overtaken the Labor government since the May 2022 election. The poll indicates the Liberal-National coalition now holds a 51-49 lead over Labor on a two-party preferred basis, a system where votes from minor parties are redistributed until a winner is declared.
While the primary vote support for both the opposition and Labor remains unchanged at 38-31 from the previous poll, a slight shift in preference towards minor parties has swung the tide in favor of the coalition. Despite this lead, the survey suggests a hung parliament is still likely as the opposition’s current advantage is not enough to secure enough seats for a return to power. A minority Labor government remains the more probable outcome.
These poll findings are a significant setback for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, especially with the national election expected in May. His center-left government has implemented numerous relief measures for families grappling with rising living costs and high mortgage rates. Inflation, while slowing to 2.7% in August, remains a concern, even though it’s within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target band of 2-3%. The RBA has acknowledged that the monthly measure is volatile and has emphasized the need to consider the temporary impact. Interest rates have stayed at 4.35% since November last year, but the RBA recently softened its hawkish stance, indicating a rate hike is no longer an immediate priority.
Despite these efforts, Albanese’s approval ratings have plummeted to a new low of minus 14, the lowest since he took office. This decline is attributed to a three-point fall in satisfaction ratings to 40% and a corresponding three-point rise in dissatisfaction to 54%. In contrast, Opposition leader Peter Dutton has a slightly lower disapproval rating of 52%.
These poll results highlight the challenging political landscape facing Prime Minister Albanese in the lead-up to the national election. The shifting public sentiment, coupled with the economic headwinds, will undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping the outcome of the election.
