The upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, from October 22-24, could witness a significant diplomatic encounter: a potential meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The summit, hosted by Russia, aims to foster partnership and cooperation across political, economic, and cultural spheres within the BRICS framework. Both India and China have confirmed the participation of their respective leaders, raising the possibility of a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the summit.
However, the shadow of the ongoing border standoff in eastern Ladakh looms large over this potential encounter. The protracted military standoff, initiated in early 2020 following Chinese transgressions across the Line of Actual Control (LAC), has strained India-China relations and continues to be a major irritant. The deadliest clash occurred in June 2020 in the Galwan Valley, resulting in the loss of 20 Indian soldiers and an unspecified number of Chinese personnel.
The standoff has led to a significant military buildup in the region, with thousands of troops and heavy weaponry deployed on both sides. While disengagement has occurred at some points of friction, broader de-escalation remains elusive. The key difference in perception lies in the approach to resolving the border dispute: India maintains that peace and tranquility along the border are crucial for bilateral relations, while China insists on separating the border issue from the broader relationship. This divergence of viewpoints has hindered progress towards a resolution.
Recent reports suggest that considerable progress has been made in narrowing the gap on outstanding issues related to the Ladakh standoff during diplomatic and political-level talks between India and China. High-level meetings, including those involving External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, have taken place in recent months. Following these discussions, the next round of military-level talks, which have been stalled since February, are expected to be held shortly to finalize the modalities for troop redeployment in Ladakh based on the terms of the agreement.
However, the absence of these military-level talks, despite the reported progress in the broader discussions, suggests that a breakthrough has not yet been achieved. The question remains: will the ongoing border dispute hinder a potential meeting between Modi and Xi at the BRICS summit? The answer hinges on the outcome of the upcoming military-level talks and the broader efforts to de-escalate the situation in Ladakh.
While the BRICS summit presents a significant opportunity for diplomatic engagement, the unresolved border dispute casts a shadow on the prospects of a successful summit-side meeting between the two leaders. The world watches with anticipation as the stage is set for this crucial diplomatic event, waiting to see whether the shadow of the Ladakh standoff will ultimately overshadow the potential for meaningful dialogue between India and China.