Romania is gearing up for a pivotal presidential election on November 24th and December 8th, with the outcome poised to significantly influence the country’s foreign policy direction, particularly its stance on supporting Ukraine within the European Union and NATO. Fourteen candidates are vying for the coveted position, seeking to replace the outgoing President Klaus Iohannis, who is completing his second and final term.
Recent opinion polls, conducted by the reputable polling firm Curs, show a tight race for the presidency. Marcel Ciolacu, the leftist Prime Minister, is currently leading the pack with 26% of the projected vote in the first round. However, the opposition’s hard-right figurehead, George Simion, leader of the Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR), is a close contender, garnering 17% of the vote, a figure that could potentially shift within the survey’s margin of error of 3.1%.
Trailing behind these frontrunners, former NATO deputy secretary general Mircea Geoana, running as an independent, is estimated to secure 15% of the vote, mirroring the projected support for Nicolae Ciuca, leader of the ruling coalition Liberals. Elena Lasconi, a two-term mayor and leader of the centre-right opposition Save Romania Union (USR), rounds out the top five candidates with 14% of the vote.
The poll, which surveyed 1,006 individuals between October 11th and 16th, highlights the increasing support for Simion, a trend that has emerged following the Romanian Supreme Court’s decision to bar Diana Sosoaca, leader of the small far-right party SOS Romania, from participating in the election. This ruling, which some analysts argue overstepped the judges’ authority, has fueled controversy and potentially propelled Simion’s popularity. Sosoaca, a member of the European Parliament, is known for her controversial anti-Semitic and pro-Russian views.
The public sentiment surrounding the court’s decision to disqualify Sosoaca is divided, with an equal number of respondents in the CURS survey deeming it either right or wrong.
Analysts believe that Ciolacu, leader of the Social Democrats (PSD), is well-positioned to outmaneuver Simion in the second round of the election by appealing to moderate voters. It’s worth noting that a PSD leader has not held the presidency since 2004.
The CURS survey also offers insights into the December parliamentary election, predicting a victory for the PSD with 31% of the vote, followed by the centre-right Liberals with 20%, AUR with 18%, and USR with 15%.
The upcoming Romanian presidential election is shaping up to be a highly contested and significant event, with implications for Romania’s role in international affairs, especially in its unwavering support for Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. The outcome will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the nation’s future trajectory.