Australia’s recent decision to acquire advanced long-range missiles from the United States has sent ripples through the Asia-Pacific region, particularly raising concerns from China, the dominant power in the area. This $4.7 billion deal, involving the acquisition of the Standard Missile 2 Block IIIC (SM-2 IIIC) and Standard Missile 6 (SM-6) systems, signifies a significant upgrade in Australia’s defense capabilities. While the Australian government justifies this move as essential for bolstering national security, it has the potential to further fuel China’s already growing military posturing.
Australia’s Rationale for Missile Acquisition:
Australia’s decision to enhance its defense systems stems from its broader National Defence Strategy (NDS), unveiled in April 2024. The NDS outlines Australia’s approach to national security in a world increasingly characterized by strategic competition between the US and China. The acquisition of the SM-2 IIIC and SM-6 missiles is part of Australia’s broader plan to strengthen its air and missile defense capabilities. This move is aimed at increasing deterrence against potential adversaries, primarily China, and safeguarding Australia’s interests in the Indo-Pacific region.
Key Objectives of the Missile Acquisition:
Australia’s acquisition of these missiles serves three main objectives:
1.
Strengthening Deterrence Capabilities:
By integrating the advanced SM-6 missile system into its naval forces, Australia aims to enhance its ability to target air, maritime, and even ground threats at long distances. This heightened capability serves as a deterrent against potential aggression, particularly from China.2.
Deepening US Ties:
Australia’s military procurement is aligned with the broader US Indo-Pacific strategy, showcasing Australia’s commitment as a key partner in countering China’s expanding influence in the region.3.
Safeguarding Regional Stability:
Australia views its defense upgrade as a necessary step to maintain regional security, ensuring its ability to effectively respond to emerging threats in an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment.
China’s Response:
China has expressed initial concerns about Australia’s missile acquisition, viewing it as part of a broader US strategy to militarize the Asia-Pacific and contain China’s rise. Beijing has the capacity to respond to this move through a combination of military, diplomatic, and economic measures.
In response to the perceived threat, China is likely to intensify its military drills and naval activities, particularly in contested areas like the South China Sea. This show of strength aims to signal to both Australia and the US that China is prepared to defend its regional interests.
China may also accelerate the deployment of its own advanced missile systems along its southern coastline to maintain a strategic edge and counter the threat posed by Australia’s new weapons systems. Technological upgrades in areas like anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems will likely be a key component of China’s military response. Beijing has consistently viewed Canberra’s alignment with US military interests as a destabilising force in the region.
Beyond military measures, China has a history of using economic coercion to respond to political and military disagreements. Australia is familiar with this tactic, having experienced trade restrictions imposed by China on Australian exports like wine, coal, and barley after calling for an international investigation into the origins of COVID-19.
Impact on Regional Security and Stability:
Australia’s missile acquisition and the expected Chinese response will have far-reaching implications for the Asia-Pacific region. An arms race between the two countries could lead to heightened instability, prompting other nations to enhance their own defense capabilities. Countries like Japan, South Korea, and India may feel compelled to expand their defense arsenals to keep pace with the growing militarization of the region. This escalation has the potential to destabilize the Asia-Pacific, increasing the risk of miscalculations and conflict.
US Involvement and Strategic Realignment:
Australia’s missile deal reinforces its status as a key US ally in the Indo-Pacific, likely leading to a greater US military presence in the region. While this may enhance security for some US allies, it could provoke China to adopt a more aggressive stance. The strategic realignment of regional powers could create new fault lines, complicating efforts to maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific.
Conclusion:
As tensions rise and regional dynamics evolve, the risk of an arms race looms large, complicating efforts to maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific. The implications of this development will reverberate across the region, shaping the future of Australia-China relations and the broader geopolitical environment. While Australia seeks to enhance its defense capabilities in response to growing regional threats, its actions may provoke a stronger Chinese response, both militarily and economically.
