The mystery surrounding the identity of Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, continues to captivate the crypto world, with the latest twist unfolding on the social prediction market Manifold. Len Sassaman, a late technologist known for his work in cryptography and privacy, has unexpectedly emerged as the frontrunner to be Nakamoto, according to the platform’s betting odds.
At the time of writing, Sassaman’s odds of being Satoshi stand at 26%, placing him ahead of other potential candidates, including Peter Todd, a Bitcoin Core engineer. Todd, who was previously identified as Satoshi in the recent HBO documentary ‘Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery,’ has seen his odds plummet significantly. Just hours ago, Todd held the lead, but his odds have since dropped to 11%.
This dramatic shift in favor of Sassaman is not entirely surprising. In the first week of October, when the trailer for the HBO documentary was released, Sassaman’s odds soared to an all-time high of 46%, coinciding with a surge of bets in his favor on the cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket. Todd’s odds peaked at 71% on October 14th before almost halving in the following five days.
The fluctuations on Manifold highlight the volatile nature of these platforms, where user sentiment and speculation play a significant role. John Vandivier, a user of Manifold, commented on an X post by economist Robin Hanson, stating, ‘…odds halved in the past 24 hours, I don’t think estimates are stable curious how this would resolve anyway.’
Manifold, a social prediction market, offers a space for users to wager on future events and compete with friends using a virtual currency called ‘Mana.’ While these bets are not tied to real money, the platform also offers ‘Sweepcash,’ which can be redeemed for real money.
As the quest to unveil the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto continues, the unpredictable world of online prediction markets continues to provide a platform for speculation and debate. The ongoing saga serves as a reminder of the enduring intrigue surrounding Bitcoin’s origins and the complex forces at play in the digital currency landscape.