The 2024 US presidential election is heating up, and a recent analysis has revealed a crucial shift in the electorate that could significantly impact the outcome. While Donald Trump has made gains among minority groups, he’s experiencing a concerning decline in support among his core base of non-college educated White voters, a demographic that has historically been a stronghold for his campaigns.
This shift has potentially given Democratic nominee Kamala Harris a significant advantage. CNN data reporter Harry Enten highlighted the importance of this demographic, stating, “What’s so interesting, because we’ve seen so many groups this year moving in Donald Trump’s direction, so you would think his core group, his base of support, would be doing the same. But in fact, it’s moving a little bit away from him.”
The data paints a clear picture: Trump’s lead among non-college educated White voters has shrunk from 33% in 2016 to 27% in 2024, according to CNN’s analysis. This decline, although seemingly small, carries significant weight, especially considering the narrow margins in most polls. The shift in this core voter group is helping Harris make up for losses among Hispanic and Black voters, keeping her competitive in the race.
The trend is particularly pronounced in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where non-college educated White voters make up a substantial portion of the electorate. Trump’s margin among this group in these states has steadily decreased from 25% in 2016 to 22% in 2020, and further down to 19% in October 2024. This shrinking lead could have significant national implications, as these states have consistently been crucial in determining the election outcome.
It’s important to note that non-college educated White voters comprise a significant portion of the national electorate, and even a slight shift in their voting preference can dramatically influence the overall results. Enten emphasizes this point, stating, “White voters and non-college Whites and college Whites, especially, they make up a lion’s share of the electorate and so even if you’re seeing small movements among these groups, among non-college Whites, slightly larger among college Whites. It more than makes up or at least makes up for the movement among voters of color.”
This dynamic has sparked discussions among political commentators, with some observing that Harris, while the first Black woman to be a presidential nominee, might ultimately rely more on White voters for victory than minority voters. This is particularly noteworthy considering Trump’s recent gains among Black and Hispanic voters, who have historically been strong Democratic supporters.
As the 2024 US Presidential election progresses, the fate of both candidates could hinge on the continued movement of non-college educated White voters. This demographic’s shifting preferences could prove to be a decisive factor in determining the ultimate winner.
