The world of political betting just got a lot more interesting. Polymarket, a popular platform for election predictions, has discovered a prominent whale trader, known as ‘Fredi9999,’ who has wagered a staggering $52 million on various outcomes tied to Donald Trump.
The trader, who Polymarket describes as having ‘extensive background in trading and financial services,’ is a French national. Fredi9999 has placed bets on a Republican victory in the upcoming U.S. election on November 5th, including the overall election, the popular vote, and key battleground states.
While Polymarket has confirmed that Fredi9999’s bets are based on personal views and there’s no indication of manipulation, the sheer size of the wagers has generated significant attention within the trading community.
This discovery comes at a time when Polymarket has been prohibited from allowing U.S. users to place bets since 2022, following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The platform aims to gain approval to operate in the U.S. under regulation by the CFTC, and the large-scale bets made by Fredi9999 only serve to further highlight the complexities of regulating this emerging sector.
Polymarket has seen a surge in trading activity this year, with approximately $2.4 billion in trades for the presidential election market alone. Currently, the implied probability of a Trump win stands at 63%.
It remains to be seen what impact Fredi9999’s massive bets will have on the outcome of the election and the future of political betting platforms.