The upcoming November election has sparked debate about the future of the Supreme Court, particularly its conservative majority. However, constitutional law experts predict that the Court’s ideological balance will remain largely unchanged, despite potential changes in its individual members.
Experts believe that the conservative majority solidified by former President Trump’s appointments of three justices will endure, even if Vice President Harris assumes the presidency. While both candidates have yet to explicitly address the Court’s composition, the possibility of retirements and subsequent appointments remains a focal point.
John Yoo, a constitutional law expert, suggests that the ideological balance will persist, even with potential changes in individual justices. He points out that if Harris wins, Justice Sotomayor might retire, while a Republican victory could lead to Justice Alito’s retirement. However, these changes, he emphasizes, are unlikely to shift the Court’s ideological balance.
Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of UC Berkeley Law, echoes this sentiment, predicting that retirements from both sides of the Court are likely. He anticipates that if Trump wins, Justices Thomas and Alito might step down to make way for younger conservative replacements. Conversely, a Harris victory could prompt Justice Sotomayor’s retirement, paving the way for a younger Democrat to take her seat.
Richard Epstein, a renowned law professor, shares similar predictions, suggesting that Justice Thomas would likely retire if Trump wins, while Justice Sotomayor would remain in her position as long as possible. Both experts agree that while individual justices might change, the Court’s overall ideological makeup is anticipated to remain largely unchanged.
Beyond the Supreme Court, experts emphasize the importance of appointments to the Circuit Courts of Appeals. Yoo highlights these courts as critical players in shaping the legal landscape, noting that they are the final arbiters in 99% of federal cases. Therefore, the appointment of new judges to these courts holds significant influence.
The potential for changes in the Supreme Court and Circuit Courts of Appeals underscores the substantial impact of the upcoming election on the judiciary. As experts predict a consistent conservative majority on the Supreme Court, the focus shifts to potential retirements and the appointment of new judges, shaping the future of the legal system for years to come.