The 2023 US Midterm Elections are set to be a nail-biter, with the close contest between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump potentially leading to a delayed outcome. With the widespread use of mail-in and absentee ballots, particularly in crucial battleground states, initial results might fluctuate significantly over several days, echoing the patterns witnessed during the 2020 election. Here’s a look at what to anticipate in seven key swing states that could ultimately determine the next president:
Arizona:
Mail-in voting remains incredibly popular in Arizona, with nearly 90% of voters casting ballots early in the 2020 election. Election officials are authorized to process and tabulate these ballots upon receipt, but results will be withheld until an hour after polls close on November 5th. Votes cast on Election Day, often a substantial portion, could take days to count. This may initially favor Harris, with the lead potentially shifting towards Trump as Election Day ballots are tallied. Late-arriving mail ballots could then swing the results back toward Harris in the subsequent days.Georgia:
Georgia expects a high early in-person turnout, with up to 70% of ballots anticipated to be cast before Election Day. While absentee ballots can be processed beforehand, counting only commences on Election Day. According to state law, all early votes must be reported by 8 p.m. ET. Overseas and military ballots, which could be crucial in a close race, will be counted if they arrive within three days. Officials expect to complete the count by midnight, but the final outcome could hinge on these additional ballots.Michigan:
For the first time, Michigan has implemented early in-person voting, and now allows larger jurisdictions to process mail ballots up to eight days before Election Day. This should expedite results, reducing the likelihood of a “red mirage,” similar to 2020, where initial results favored Trump before mail-in ballots shifted the lead to Biden. Smaller jurisdictions can only begin processing ballots the day before November 5th, so close margins might still cause delays.Nevada:
Recent rule changes in Nevada allow officials to start processing and counting mail ballots early. While in-person early votes can be counted starting at 8 a.m. PT on Election Day, the state’s acceptance of late-arriving mail ballots – if postmarked by November 5th and received within four days – could delay final results. These late ballots typically favor Democrats, potentially resulting in a shift toward Harris post-Election Day.North Carolina:
North Carolina processes mail ballots ahead of Election Day, meaning the initial results will reflect early mail and in-person voting. Election Day ballots will follow, likely tightening the initial Harris lead as more votes are counted. Absentee ballots postmarked by November 5th will be counted during a 10-day canvassing period, implying that a close race might not be resolved for a week or more.Pennsylvania:
As a critical swing state, Pennsylvania is not permitted to process mail ballots until Election Day begins, causing significant delays. The initial results will likely show Trump leading based on in-person votes, but this margin may narrow as mail ballots are counted. A recent law requires counties to announce the number of uncounted mail ballots by midnight on election night to increase transparency and counter potential misinformation.Wisconsin:
With similar ballot processing rules to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin cannot count mail-in ballots until Election Day. Major cities, like Milwaukee, centralize ballot processing, leading to substantial vote counts being released in batches, often after polls close. In 2020, an early morning release of absentee ballots in Milwaukee dramatically shifted the results, prompting Trump and his supporters to allege fraud. A similar reporting pattern could occur this year, as mail ballots favor Harris.Given the varied procedures across battleground states, the nation may witness fluctuating vote counts in the days following November 5th, with potential shifts in each candidate’s lead as mail ballots are tallied. Election officials are aiming for transparency to prevent misinformation, but a close race could mean days or even weeks before a final winner is declared.