In a bold move that has sent ripples through the political prediction market, a pseudonymous Polymarket trader named ‘Redegen’ has placed a massive bet on Vice President Kamala Harris winning the popular vote in the upcoming November election. If his bet proves accurate, Redegen stands to gain a staggering profit of almost $4 million.
Redegen, who remains anonymous, expressed his confidence in his prediction on X (formerly Twitter). He believes the bet is a high-value play due to Harris’s consistent lead in polls and estimates Donald Trump has less than a 15% chance of overcoming it. Redegen’s wager isn’t limited to the popular vote; he has also placed a bet against Trump winning the election itself. His total position is valued at $6.4 million, though it currently sits underwater by over $250,000.
This high-stakes gamble contrasts with other interpretations of the race. Nate Silver, the former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, has suggested both Harris and former President Trump could surpass their current poll numbers. Silver’s model predicts a Trump sweep of swing states as the most likely scenario, occurring 24% of the time, with a Harris sweep following at 15%.
Adding to the intrigue, Harris has recently received endorsements from 23 Nobel laureates, including renowned economist Daron Acemoglu, who support her economic policies aimed at fostering strong and equitable growth. This endorsement further amplifies the debate around Harris’s potential electoral success.
Redegen’s substantial bet reflects the broader economic sentiment and strategic political forecasts as we head into the November election. The outcome of this high-stakes wager, along with the broader implications for the digital asset industry, will be discussed at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on November 19. As the election approaches, the spotlight remains on the prediction markets and their ability to gauge the pulse of the electorate.