As North Carolina gears up for the upcoming election, a sense of urgency is setting in for Democrats. The party faces an uphill battle in the battleground state, with early voting trends suggesting a significant advantage for Republicans. Thomas Mills, publisher and founder of PoliticsNC, a website focused on North Carolina and national politics, has identified two key issues that Democrats need to address to compete: low African American voter turnout and Republicans’ aggressive early voting strategy.
Mills, a veteran of the political campaign world, observed that Republicans are voting at higher levels than in previous elections, particularly in the early voting period. This trend is a departure from 2020, when Republicans were advised to hold off on early voting and vote on Election Day. This year, however, they’re actively encouraging early participation.
‘The big question is, ‘What is driving the GOTV vote this cycle?’’ Mills remarked, referring to the Get Out The Vote efforts. ‘Historically, they [Republicans] have not put any emphasis in North Carolina on early voting. In fact, in 2020, they actually told Republicans not to vote early, to vote on Election Day,’ he explained. ‘This year, they’ve taken a different tack. And they’re actively telling Republicans to go vote early.’
The early voting data reveals that Republicans are currently ahead in voter participation, but Mills cautions that these numbers may not reflect new voters. ‘Right now, they have more votes than Democrats,’ he noted. ‘The question is, are these voters that would have been voting on Election Day that are voting early, or are there new voters in the group that they’re hoping are going to push their margins up?’
While early voting allows operatives to target less frequent voters, Mills observes that North Carolina isn’t seeing a substantial influx of new voters this election cycle.
Another key issue that could significantly impact Democrats in the state is the low turnout among Black voters, a historically strong voting bloc for the party. According to Mills, ‘Historically, African-Americans have been a pretty major part of the Democratic coalition, and they make up somewhere around 20% of the overall vote, and they vote at roughly 90% for Democrats. And what I saw when I was looking, comparing early votes from 2020 to 2024, is, a few days ago, they were down by about 67,000 votes or so from 2020, which four days into the early vote is not a catastrophe, because there’s going to be probably more than a million African Americans voting.’
Mills emphasizes that the decline doesn’t necessarily indicate a shift in voting behavior but rather a ‘depressed turnout’ among Black voters. ‘If Democrats want to get them in the polls, they need to start trying to figure out what those are and getting them to go vote,’ he urged. ‘They have time to fix it, but they do need to figure out what the issue is, where the problems are and increase turnout.’
The recent impact of Hurricane Helene on the southeast, including several North Carolina counties, has added another layer of complexity to the election. Mills believes the natural disaster will likely affect voter turnout due to accessibility challenges and residents’ focus on addressing basic needs. While he doesn’t anticipate it to significantly favor either party, he suggests that it could impact voter participation in certain areas. ‘I think when you have a natural disaster like that, it does affect turnout some because of accessibility, but more because people have either left the area because they don’t have water, they don’t have power, or they’re just too concerned with trying to take care of basic needs,’ Mills said. ‘They’re not thinking about voting.’
