The 2024 US presidential race is shaping up to be a nail-biter, according to the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll. Vice President Kamala Harris has eked out a slight lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters nationally, but the race remains remarkably close. This suggests that the outcome of the election could hinge on the Electoral College, making voter turnout a crucial factor.
The poll, which gauged vote preferences among likely voters, revealed a 2 percentage point gap between Harris and Trump among all registered voters (49% for Harris and 47% for Trump). However, among likely voters, Harris enjoys a slightly larger advantage, with 51% of likely voters supporting her compared to 47% for Trump. This shift in favor of Harris among likely voters could be attributed to a stronger propensity to vote within certain pro-Harris groups.
While Harris holds the lead, the poll also highlights key issues that could influence the outcome. Trump is perceived as better equipped to handle issues like immigration, the economy, inflation, and the Middle East conflict, while Harris is seen as more capable of addressing the needs of the middle class, abortion, healthcare, and safeguarding American democracy.
The poll’s findings also reveal a decline in the importance voters place on the economy and inflation, down 7 points each since September. This shift away from economic concerns could benefit Harris, who has been struggling with public trust regarding her handling of the economy and the Biden administration’s economic performance.
Harris has also seen a resurgence in support among Hispanic voters and has expanded her advantage among suburban women compared to earlier this month. She continues to hold strong support among key demographics like Black voters. Conversely, Trump has seen a surge in support in rural areas and among non-college white men, and is performing competitively among younger men.
The 2024 US elections are scheduled for November 5, 2024, with early voting available in select states. This tightly contested race suggests that the upcoming election will be a battleground for every vote, and the outcome could hinge on factors such as voter turnout and the ability of each candidate to capitalize on emerging issues and demographics.
