Japan’s ‘Defence Geek’ Suffers Election Setback: Ishiba’s Gamble Backfires
Shigeru Ishiba, Japan’s Prime Minister known for his fascination with defense matters and trains, has faced a severe blow in the recent snap election. His gamble, a risky strategy to call for early polls, backfired spectacularly as his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered its worst performance in 15 years. The devastating results, widely predicted by local media following Sunday’s vote, cast a dark shadow over Ishiba’s leadership, marking a turning point for the party that has dominated Japanese politics for decades.
Ishiba, a seasoned LDP veteran known for his fondness for 1970s pop icons and meticulous military model-making, had just a month ago secured the party leadership after besting eight other candidates. His ascendance came after the resignation of Fumio Kishida, whose tenure was marred by rising public discontent over inflation, a financial scandal, and the LDP’s growing ties to a Christian movement in the aftermath of the 2022 assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
At a rally preceding the election, Ishiba presented a vision of renewal, pledging to transform the LDP into a “fair, just, and sincere party.” However, his promises fell flat with voters. Exit polls conducted by national broadcaster NHK and other outlets revealed a dismal outcome for the LDP, failing to secure a majority for the first time since 2009.
The situation is even more dire when considering the LDP’s long-term coalition partner, Komeito. Together, they are projected to fall short of the required 233 seats in the lower house – a target that Ishiba had explicitly set as his minimum goal. This severe setback raises questions about the future of Ishiba’s leadership, casting a long shadow over his vision for a ‘New Japan.’
Ishiba’s road to the premiership was paved with several failed attempts to lead the LDP, including a 2012 challenge against his rival, Shinzo Abe. His outspoken criticism of LDP policies during Abe’s leadership alienated many party heavyweights. Despite this, Ishiba’s recent focus on the need for change within the LDP seemed to have worked in his favor prior to the election, according to Yu Uchiyama, a politics professor at the University of Tokyo.
Despite initial successes, including a cabinet shakeup and an early election call, Ishiba’s campaign faced setbacks, including a controversy over a doctored photo of the cabinet. His ambitious reform agenda, centered on revitalizing rural regions and addressing the nation’s declining population, was met with skepticism by voters. He also made a controversial statement about the potential for conflict in East Asia, drawing parallels with the situation in Ukraine. This, combined with his stance on issues like allowing married couples to retain their separate surnames, further eroded public confidence in his leadership.
Adding to his challenges, Ishiba’s cabinet featured only two women, a significant reduction from the five appointed by his predecessor. This missed opportunity to present a more modern image further fueled criticism of his leadership. The recent election results have fueled speculation that Ishiba’s tenure as prime minister might be short-lived. The potential for an internal power shift within the LDP, even without a change in government, cannot be ruled out.
Before the election, local media hinted at the possibility of Ishiba’s resignation if the results were unfavorable. This raises the prospect of him becoming Japan’s shortest-serving prime minister in the post-war period, surpassing the current record held by Naruhiko Higashikuni, who served for only 54 days after Japan’s defeat in World War II. The coming days will be crucial in determining the future of Ishiba’s leadership and the course of Japanese politics.
