The U.S. auto market continues to demonstrate resilience, with October vehicle sales projected to maintain the current trend. According to S&P Global Mobility, light vehicle sales are expected to increase by 11% year-over-year, reaching an estimated 1.315 million units. While this growth is partially influenced by two additional selling days in October compared to the previous year, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) also paints a positive picture, reaching 15.9 million units – one of the better SAAR results this year.
Despite ongoing pressures from high interest rates and elevated vehicle prices, which are translating to higher monthly payments for consumers, there’s a glimmer of hope for further growth in the auto sector. Chris Hopson, Principal Analyst at S&P Global Mobility, suggests that automakers may introduce additional support measures for consumers in the final quarter of the year, which could provide a much-needed boost to the market.
Adding further momentum to the positive outlook is the surge in vehicle inventory. S&P Global Mobility’s Retail Advertised Inventory data indicates a significant increase in retail advertised inventory in the U.S., reaching just over 3 million units in September 2024. This represents a 4.7% jump from the previous month and marks the first time in their dataset that inventory has surpassed the three-million mark. This surge aligns with a broader trend observed over the past two years, where inventory levels consistently rise during the fall season.
The market is also witnessing a notable shift towards electric vehicles (EVs). Data from S&P Global Mobility reveals that the BEV share of new vehicle registrations has remained above 8% every month since June, showcasing significant progress from earlier in the year. September saw an estimated BEV share exceeding 9%, and October is expected to maintain this trend. This surge in EV adoption is fueled by the continuous rollout of new EV models, including the Chevrolet Equinox EV and Honda Prologue, with further additions expected in the fourth quarter, such as the Polestar 3, Jeep Wagoneer S, and Volkswagen ID. Buzz.
As the year draws to a close, the U.S. auto market appears poised for continued growth, driven by a combination of factors including increasing inventory, potential consumer support from automakers, and the growing popularity of electric vehicles. The outlook for the final quarter of 2024 remains positive, with the potential for further market expansion as the industry navigates the evolving landscape of consumer demand and technological advancements.
