As the 2024 presidential election enters its final week, the battle for Michigan has intensified. With polls showing a tight race, both campaigns are now laser-focused on getting their supporters to the polls. Experts agree that voter turnout will be the deciding factor in this crucial swing state.
“The campaign’s No. 1 priority and the party’s priority right now is getting our people out to vote,” declared Jimmy Keady, founder and president of Republican consulting firm JLK Political Strategies. This sentiment reflects the shift in strategy from persuasion to mobilization. While candidates may have spent the earlier stages of the campaign trying to win over undecided voters, the final week is all about ensuring those already in their corner make it to the ballot box.
Michigan, which narrowly voted for Donald Trump in 2016 before flipping to Joe Biden in 2020, remains a tightly contested state. Recent polls suggest another close race, with Trump holding a razor-thin lead according to RealClearPolitics, while the latest Fox News Power Rankings categorize it as a toss-up.
Keady believes that the key to victory in Michigan lies in effectively targeting “low propensity voters” – individuals who participate in only a fraction of elections. Both parties are aiming to energize this demographic, recognizing their potential to swing the outcome. “A lot of these campaigns are going to be focused a lot on low propensity voters…voters that are voting in like one out of four elections, making sure that they’re hit several times, making sure we’re dragging people out to the polls to vote,” Keady explained.
Jason Roe, a GOP strategist working in Michigan, echoes this sentiment, highlighting the diminishing pool of undecided voters and the need to tap into the untapped potential of those who haven’t been reached by Republican campaigns. “There’s not a lot of undecided voters left, but there’s untapped voters who’ve never heard from a Republican campaign,” Roe stated. “In addition to getting mail-in ballots returned and people to vote early, finding and mobilizing low propensity voters and getting them to the polls is everyone’s focus.”
The battle for Michigan extends beyond the presidential race. The Senate campaign between former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers and Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin is another key contest, with the outcome potentially determining which party controls the chamber. Keady points out that Michigan’s straight ticket voting system makes mobilizing Republican voters crucial for down-ballot candidates as well. “Michigan and Nevada are one of two of the seven swing states on the map that basically have straight ticket voting,” Keady elaborated. “Getting low prop voters out to vote that are Republican and conservative means it’s going to help down-ballot.”
With a week remaining, both campaigns are employing various strategies to maximize voter turnout. Trump and his team are leveraging his strong connection with blue-collar and union workers, particularly in manufacturing sectors, highlighting their economic policies as a potential draw for this demographic. “We are seeing a lot of union members move to the Republican side because of their economic policies…particularly when it comes to manufacturing jobs,” Keady observed. “The campaigns absolutely have to be moving through their microtargets and talking to these union voters.”
As the race for Michigan intensifies, the focus is undeniably on mobilizing supporters and maximizing voter turnout. The next week will be crucial in determining which party can successfully bring out their base and secure victory in this pivotal swing state.
