The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas is causing significant concern among American voters, with many fearing a wider conflict in the Middle East, according to a new AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll. While both Democrats and Republicans agree that the situation is dire and express caution about direct US involvement, there’s a distinct partisan gap on who they hold responsible for escalating the violence.
The poll, conducted before Israel launched airstrikes on military bases in Iran on Friday, reveals that a significant majority of voters – about 6 in 10 – believe Hamas, Iran, and Hezbollah share a substantial amount of responsibility for escalating the war. However, only around 4 in 10 voters assign blame to the Israeli government.
But when looking at party affiliation, a stark contrast emerges. Approximately 6 in 10 Democrats place a significant amount of blame on Israel for the conflict in Gaza, similar to the number of Democrats who hold Hamas responsible. In stark contrast, only around 1 in 4 Republicans place a similar level of blame on Israel.
The conflict in the Middle East has become a crucial campaign issue, particularly as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris try to secure the votes of Muslim and Jewish voters in key battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. The poll indicates that nearly half of all voters are extremely or very worried about a wider war in the Middle East, while slightly fewer – 4 in 10 – are concerned that the US will be drawn into the conflict.
The poll also explores public opinion on various US policies regarding the conflict. A majority of voters (55%) favor economic sanctions against Iran, a nation the US designates as the leading state sponsor of terrorism in the region. However, Americans are evenly divided on whether the US should provide Israel with military aid, with a greater likelihood of opposing the sending of US aid to Israel’s military.
Regarding direct US military involvement, there is bipartisan opposition to deploying US troops in the Middle East to assist Israel. Almost half of voters oppose sending US troops to Gaza, while only 2 in 10 favor such action. Another 2 in 10 expressed a neutral stance on the issue.
The Biden-Harris administration has been pushing for a ceasefire between Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah for over a year now, but with limited success. The poll suggests that about half of American voters believe the US is doing everything it can to facilitate a ceasefire agreement. However, 3 in 10 believe the US could be doing more, while about 2 in 10 believe the US should be less involved. This opinion also reveals a partisan divide, with Republicans more likely than Democrats to favor a more limited US role in ceasefire negotiations.
The AP-NORC poll, conducted between October 11th and 14th, 2024, surveyed 1,072 adults and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. This poll provides a crucial insight into public opinion regarding the Israel-Hamas war, highlighting the anxieties, divisions, and policy preferences of American voters as this conflict continues to unfold.
