In a bold move that has sent ripples through the political betting world, professional politics trader ‘Domer’ has announced a significant investment in Vice President Kamala Harris’s potential 2024 presidential bid. Domer has wagered over half a million dollars, betting on Harris to secure both the presidency and the popular vote, and even predicting a win in Pennsylvania.
His investment thesis rests on a combination of factors that he believes point to a surprising shift in the political landscape. One key element is a recent surge for Harris in Iowa’s Selzer poll, a development that Domer describes as an ‘alien landing’ due to its unexpected nature.
Adding to his optimism, Domer has observed a strategic shift within the Republican party. He points to an increase in early voting participation and a trend of ‘victory lapping’ on social media as evidence of this shift. While Biden’s popularity remains low, Domer argues that the Republican party has faced setbacks in post-2020 elections, indicating a potential decline in the appeal of the MAGA movement.
Despite acknowledging that Donald Trump’s favorability has risen to around 45%, higher than in his previous campaigns, Domer maintains that the overall takeaway from post-2020 elections is that MAGA is ‘even less popular than unpopular Biden.’ The bettor remains curious about Trump’s ability to address the apparent division within his movement, considering whether he possesses the ‘secret elixir’ to unite his base.
Based on his analysis, Domer predicts a 55-60% chance of Kamala Harris winning the presidency, defying the current betting markets that favor Trump. However, he has voiced sharp criticism of political pundit and statistician Nate Silver, accusing him of incorporating ‘fake poll’ data into his model. Domer believes this is a major contributing factor to the discrepancy between their respective predictions.
The impact of prediction markets on the upcoming election will be explored in detail at Benzinga’s ‘Future of Digital Assets’ event on November 19th. This event promises to shed light on the evolving role of these markets in shaping political discourse and outcomes.
