The 2024 US midterm elections are shaping up to be a pivotal moment in American politics, with the control of Congress hanging in the balance. Both the House and Senate could see a change in party control, potentially setting the stage for a major shift in legislative power for the next two years.
If the Republicans manage to reclaim the Senate from the Democrats’ slim majority, it would significantly bolster the legislative influence of Donald Trump’s party. However, the Democrats are aiming to take control of the House by flipping just a handful of seats, effectively securing a 435-seat majority.
These results will hold immense significance for the next US president, who will be elected on the same day in the race between Trump and Kamala Harris. The control of Congress will directly influence the ability of the incoming president to enact their agenda and advance their policies.
The Senate is expected to be particularly close, with several tight races determining the outcome. Seven key contests are seen as competitive, and the outcome could hinge on just a few thousand votes in some cases. While a handful of House seats are considered hotly contested, the overall picture there appears less uncertain.
“It’s incredibly close,” remarked Erin Covey, a House race analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. The current voter sentiment suggests no clear preference for either party. An October Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 43% of registered voters would support the Republican candidate in their district, while an equal percentage favored the Democratic candidate.
The Democrats are playing defense in the Senate, where they are trying to maintain their current control. Republicans only need to gain two seats to claim the majority, and they are poised to win one seat with a victory in West Virginia, where incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin is retiring. Jim Justice, the popular Republican governor, is widely expected to succeed Manchin.
Republicans could secure their majority by winning in either Montana, where Democrat Jon Tester faces a tough re-election battle, or Ohio, where Democrat Sherrod Brown is locked in a close race. They also have a chance to expand their Senate majority by winning races in several competitive Midwestern states. A larger Republican majority would enable them to effectively block many of Harris’ initiatives and personnel appointments if she becomes president, or to help Trump deliver on his promised tax cuts if he wins re-election.
However, it is highly unlikely that the Republicans will achieve the 60-vote majority needed to pass most legislation in the Senate. In Nebraska, Republican Senator Deb Fischer faces a strong challenge from an independent candidate, Dan Osborn, who has yet to reveal whether he would align with Democrats in the Senate if elected. Republicans are also on the defensive in Texas, where Senator Ted Cruz faces a challenge from Democratic Representative Colin Allred, aiming to break a three-decade streak of Republican control.
The House race presents a less clear picture, with Republicans currently holding a narrow majority. Analysts predict that the Democrats could easily pick up enough seats to claim control, but there are no indications of a “wave” election, akin to the decisive shifts in 2018 or 2010. With at least 200 seats secured for each party, the victor is likely to have a narrow majority, potentially leading to governing challenges.
This scenario was evident in the past two years, where Republican infighting led to stalled votes, leadership turmoil, and a weakening of the party’s efforts to cut spending and tighten immigration. Tight races in traditionally Democratic states like New York and California could ultimately determine House control. However, the final results may not be known for several days, as California’s ballot counting process can take days, and recounts and runoffs for close races can take weeks to resolve.
Two Virginia races could offer early indicators of how the battle will unfold. A Republican victory in the 7th Congressional District, encompassing parts of Washington’s suburbs, could signal the party’s continued appeal in competitive areas despite recent struggles. Conversely, a Democratic victory in the 2nd District, centered on Virginia Beach, could suggest the party is poised for significant gains, according to Cook Political Report’s Covey.
North Carolina’s rural 1st District, currently held by Democrat Don Davis, is also seen as a potential bellwether race. Meanwhile, Delaware voters are poised to elect the first transgender member of Congress, with Democrat Sarah McBride projected to win the state’s sole House seat. McBride is running for the seat vacated by Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester, who is now running for a Senate seat. Blunt Rochester could also make history if she wins her race and fellow Democrat Angela Alsobrooks wins the more competitive US Senate election in neighboring Maryland. If both win, they would be the first two Black women to serve simultaneously in the US Senate.
