In a dramatic turn of events, a pseudonymous Polymarket trader, known as ‘Redegen’, ended Election Day down a staggering $6.7 million after placing substantial bets on Kamala Harris winning the 2020 presidential election. The high-stakes gamble, which saw Redegen acquire a massive 9.2 million shares on Harris winning the popular vote and 2.6 million shares on her winning the presidency, backfired spectacularly.
While Redegen anticipated a Trump victory in the electoral college, he believed that Polymarket was ‘systematically overweighting’ Trump and ‘underweighting’ Harris, prompting him to hold onto his bets. However, former President Trump’s surprise victory in the popular vote, as well as his second term win in the electoral college, resulted in a $6.8 million loss for Redegen’s portfolio. This loss highlights the inherent risk and volatility associated with prediction markets and crypto trading.
Redegen, who now goes by ‘theRealTaylorSwift’, is not the only trader who bet big on Harris. Lookonchain data revealed another Polymarket trader, ‘leier’, who spent 5 million USDC on November 4th betting on Harris winning the U.S. election. His current loss stands at $4.9 million.
Despite the significant financial setback, Redegen expressed gratitude for the experience and praised prediction platforms for maintaining a fair environment. He explained that even though his data pointed towards a Trump presidency, he chose not to offload shares on Polymarket due to his perception of a systemic bias against Harris.
Redegen’s high-stakes gamble serves as a stark reminder of the unpredictable nature of prediction markets. The event has sparked discussions within the crypto trading community, prompting deeper analysis of the potential influence and limitations of these platforms.
The impact of prediction markets will be further explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on November 19th. This event will delve into the intricacies of these platforms and their role in shaping financial landscapes.
