Voltaire’s famous quote, “History never repeats itself; man always does,” rings profoundly true in the face of the current global surge in populism. Following the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent economic turmoil, a wave of populist movements is sweeping the globe, echoing historical patterns of societal response to crisis and uncertainty.
This year alone, elections have taken place in over 80 nations and territories, as highlighted in a recent Goldman Sachs report. Political scientists widely observe a concerning trend of “democratic backsliding” – a decline in the integrity of democratic values and institutions. This erosion of trust, coupled with economic hardship and a sense of disenfranchisement among voters, is creating fertile ground for populist ideologies to take root.
The 2024 European Parliament elections provided a stark illustration of this shift, with numerous countries experiencing a significant swing to the right and populist parties making significant gains. Similarly, the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States signifies a powerful return to conservative politics, reinforcing the global trend.
But what are the underlying causes of this populist surge? While rapid technological advancements undeniably contribute to societal disruption and anxieties, the COVID-19 pandemic stands out as a pivotal inflection point. Research published in the *American Journal of Public Health* draws compelling parallels between worsening public health outcomes and the rise of radical political viewpoints.
This research, using both quantitative and qualitative analysis, examines the 1918 influenza pandemic and the rise of Italian fascism as a case study. It reveals a statistically significant correlation between deteriorating public health and increased support for extremist ideologies. The study highlights how Mussolini’s propaganda exploited the health crisis, blaming external groups and portraying himself as the champion of the common people against a detached elite. This pattern is eerily reminiscent of current events.
The research further demonstrates that counties in the US where life expectancy stagnated or declined between 1980 and 2014 were more likely to support Donald Trump in 2016. A similar association exists between worsening health in the UK and support for Brexit. The study conclusively links declining mortality rates in Germany in the early 1930s to the rise of the Nazi party, and influenza deaths in 1918 with subsequent Nazi electoral gains. The clear message is that economic hardship, often stemming from public health crises, can act as a powerful catalyst for societal shifts toward populist ideologies.
Our current global economic landscape is undeniably precarious. Rapid technological advancements threaten to disrupt established practices, while regional conflicts, such as the ongoing war in Ukraine, further exacerbate societal divisions. This complex interplay of factors aligns with the Social Cycle Theory, suggesting a cyclical nature to historical events. The rise of populism, in this context, can be seen as a predictable, albeit concerning, stage in this cycle.
The 2024 Crossroads Summit recognizes the significance of this global uncertainty. Gathering leaders from diverse sectors, including technology, business, geopolitics, education, and public policy, the summit aims to provide crucial insights and foster collaboration in navigating the challenges ahead. With speakers like Microsoft’s Chief Innovation Officer and prominent Wall Street investor Cathie Wood, the summit promises insightful discussions on critical topics such as strategic adaptation, geopolitical risks, and the future of the economy. The summit’s focus on innovation and entrepreneurship offers a beacon of hope amidst the uncertainty, particularly in light of the anticipated second term of President-elect Donald Trump.
In conclusion, the rise of populism is a complex phenomenon with deep historical roots. Understanding the interplay of factors – from public health crises and economic hardship to technological disruption and geopolitical instability – is crucial for navigating the challenges and opportunities of the future. The 2024 Crossroads Summit provides a platform for leaders and investors to grapple with these issues and chart a course forward. The time for insightful analysis and proactive solutions is now.
