A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered by the US and effective since Wednesday, hangs precariously as tensions remain high across southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. While a tense calm has settled over parts of Lebanon, the situation is far from resolved. Hezbollah, in its first statement since the truce, pledged continued resistance against Israel, declaring that they are monitoring Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon “with (their) hands on the trigger.” This stark warning underscores the underlying fragility of the agreement.
The 60-day phased withdrawal, commencing at 4 am local time on Wednesday, involves Israel pulling its forces out of Lebanon while Hezbollah relocates its fighters and heavy weaponry from a 25km buffer zone. This agreement aims to facilitate a lasting peace after 14 months of conflict, with a US-led oversight body monitoring compliance. However, the ceasefire has already been marred by several incidents.
Israel’s intensified operations in Gaza continue unabated, with airstrikes reported to have killed at least 21 people in the past 24 hours, according to The Guardian. Israeli ground forces are reportedly advancing further into the northern and southern parts of the territory, targeting what the Israeli military describes as “terror targets.” This ongoing offensive casts a long shadow over the Lebanese ceasefire, highlighting the complex and interconnected nature of the regional conflict.
Violations of the ceasefire are already being reported. The Israeli military reported an airstrike targeting a Hezbollah facility used to store mid-range rockets – the first such strike since the truce began. This strike reportedly occurred north of the Litani River, a region technically outside the ceasefire agreement. Further violations include reports of Israeli tank fire hitting six locations along the UN-demarcated Blue Line, injuring two people. The Israeli military claims to have responded to suspected ceasefire breaches, stating that troops “opened fire toward” individuals allegedly entering restricted areas.
The return of displaced Lebanese civilians remains a significant challenge. Thousands are attempting to return to their abandoned homes in southern Lebanon, despite conflicting statements from officials. While Lebanon’s parliament speaker, Nabih Berri, has encouraged their return, Israel has issued cautions. Reports indicate that Israeli forces fired on several vehicles attempting to enter designated restricted zones, with Hezbollah politician Hassan Fadlallah accusing Israel of attacking those returning to border villages.
The conflict has displaced approximately 1.2 million people in Lebanon and 60,000 in Israel. Lebanon’s health ministry reports 3,823 deaths and 15,859 injuries from Israeli fire since October 2023. Israeli figures indicate 45 civilian and 73 soldier deaths from Hezbollah attacks. The human cost of this protracted conflict is immense, with both sides facing significant losses.
The ceasefire’s success hangs precariously on the ability of both sides to adhere to the agreement’s terms, despite the challenges and ongoing tensions. The separate nature of the truce with Hezbollah and the continuing conflict in Gaza adds another layer of complexity, with little indication of a resolution to the Gaza crisis on the horizon. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues to worsen, with accusations of aid blockades and displacement leveled against Israel, allegations that Israel denies. The year-long conflict between Hamas and Israel has resulted in an estimated 44,300 Palestinian deaths, according to local health officials, a figure corroborated by the UN. The conflict began on October 7, 2023, with the death of 1,200 Israelis and the capture of 250, with Israel reporting 63 hostages remain alive.
Ultimately, the future of the Lebanon ceasefire and the broader regional stability remains uncertain, hinging on fragile adherence to the terms of the agreement and a broader resolution to the wider conflict in the region.
