The 2024 Presidential Election delivered a stunning result: Joe Biden’s defeat. A year prior, the political landscape painted a concerning picture for the incumbent. Three key statistics stood out: approximately 30% of Americans believed the country was on the right track; around 40% approved of Biden’s performance; and a staggering 97% of Trump supporters felt things were better under his presidency. These figures, reflecting three years of the Biden administration, presented a formidable challenge for his re-election campaign. The sheer level of support for Trump rendered attempts to focus solely on negative campaigning futile; his base remained steadfast.
Biden’s administration entered office with an ambitious goal: to demonstrate the effectiveness of American governance. This aim was particularly significant in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and Trump’s deregulation policies. The administration aimed to prove that American institutions could address domestic and international issues, especially amidst growing competition with China. Biden’s inaugural address emphasized this ambition, highlighting the need to show that democracy could effectively compete with autocracies. His supporters laid out a strategic plan: successfully manage the COVID-19 vaccination rollout, pass substantial infrastructure legislation, and run on a message of national renewal.
Progress was made on this ambitious plan. By October 2021, nearly 75% of Americans had received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose. The trillion-dollar infrastructure bill was signed into law, signifying a substantial investment in national infrastructure projects. Foreign policy saw successes, as Sweden and Finland joined NATO, and the ‘Quad’ alliance was strengthened. Despite these accomplishments, public approval ratings remained stubbornly low.
The disconnect between Biden’s policy successes and his approval rating hinges on the public’s perception of tangible benefits. While infrastructure projects were planned and high-tech investments were made (via the CHIPS Act), the visible impact of these measures wouldn’t be apparent until long after the election. Furthermore, the lingering effects of the pandemic, including the emergence of new variants, undermined the initial success of the vaccination program. This created widespread skepticism about government effectiveness.
Similarly, while the Inflation Reduction Act capped insulin costs, and aid to Ukraine held significant public support, these positive actions were not perceived as having sufficient direct impact on voters’ everyday lives to counteract the negative narrative around Afghanistan and the ongoing Ukraine war. The slow progress in Ukraine created an image of presidential weakness, while the Afghanistan withdrawal remains a major point of criticism.
Even positive assessments from commentators such as Bob Woodward, praising Biden’s handling of international crises, did little to alter the prevailing public perception. The long-term benefits of the Biden administration’s actions—like the ongoing infrastructure projects and high-tech investments—were overshadowed by short-term concerns and a narrative of presidential failure to deliver immediate and visible positive change. While the administration might point to a number of achievements, the perception of a lack of impactful improvement in voters’ lives ultimately sealed Biden’s fate, likely setting back the Democratic Party’s prospects for years to come.
