The rapidly evolving situation in Syria, where rebel forces are making significant gains against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, is creating unforeseen vulnerabilities for both Hezbollah and its primary backer, Iran, according to US envoy Amos Hochstein. Hochstein, a key figure in brokering the recent US-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, shared his assessment during a political conference in Doha, offering insights into the shifting dynamics of the conflict.
Hochstein’s analysis centers on the weakening of Hezbollah’s capabilities. While he clarified that the militant group is not entirely eliminated, its capacity has demonstrably diminished. The intensified Syrian conflict is making it significantly harder for Iran to supply Hezbollah with essential weaponry and logistical support, according to Hochstein. This assertion is underscored by Iran’s reported withdrawal of embassy families from Syria, coupled with denials of a broader military withdrawal – a move reported by the New York Times.
The US envoy provided context by highlighting the contrast between the Syrian army’s current struggles and its position during the peak of the civil war thirteen years ago. He noted that, at that time, the Syrian army benefitted from the substantial backing of both Iran and Russia. The current situation presents a significantly weaker Syrian army, lacking the robust foreign military support it previously enjoyed. This inherent weakness, he argued, directly impacts Hezbollah’s ability to receive support and operate effectively.
The complexities of Hezbollah’s situation are further highlighted by Hochstein’s observation that despite its weakened state, the group remains a potent force within Lebanon. Its ability to wield significant influence within Lebanon, he stressed, is not necessarily contingent upon its military strength in Syria. This nuance underscores the intricate relationship between Hezbollah’s internal and external operations.
Adding further fuel to the assessment of Hezbollah’s weakened state, Reuters reported on Friday that Hezbollah deployed only a small contingent of ‘supervising forces’ from Lebanon to Syria to assist in preventing anti-government fighters from capturing the strategically vital city of Homs. This deployment, according to two senior Lebanese security sources cited by Reuters, falls far short of a major military intervention, suggesting a constrained ability to project power beyond Lebanon’s borders.
The ongoing developments in Syria, therefore, represent a critical turning point in the regional power dynamics. Hochstein’s comments paint a picture of diminished Iranian influence and a significantly weakened Hezbollah, albeit one that retains a substantial domestic presence. The long-term implications of these shifts for the stability of the Middle East remain to be seen, prompting further scrutiny of the region’s geopolitical landscape.
