The stunningly swift collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, following a rapid rebel victory led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has thrust China into a precarious geopolitical situation. The rebels’ capture of Damascus marks a dramatic turning point in the long-running Syrian civil war, presenting both significant challenges and unforeseen opportunities for Beijing. While many anticipate a pragmatic working relationship between China and whoever emerges as Syria’s next leader, the future trajectory of their relations hinges on the evolving political landscape and the daunting task of rebuilding a war-torn nation.
The End of an Era and China’s Unexpected Dilemma
The December 8th regime change, following a lightning-fast offensive by opposition forces, signified a pivotal moment in Syria’s protracted civil conflict. Al Jazeera reported that Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali would oversee state institutions until a transition, effectively ending Assad’s 24-year rule. Russian media outlets confirmed that the ousted president and his family have been granted asylum in Moscow. This development comes just a year after Assad’s high-profile visit to China, where he met with President Xi Jinping – a visit that underscored Beijing’s unwavering support for the Assad regime amidst global condemnation.
The dramatic shift in power has significantly complicated China’s position. Its substantial investments in Syria and its carefully cultivated diplomatic relationships now face considerable uncertainty. The loss of its key ally necessitates a recalibration of China’s regional strategy.
The Xi-Assad Relationship: A Partnership Under Pressure
Assad’s September 2023 visit to China represented a crucial juncture in bilateral relations. Facing widespread international isolation and crippling Western sanctions, Assad sought and received Beijing’s backing. During their meeting, Presidents Xi and Assad emphasized China’s policy of non-interference and respect for sovereignty. They also discussed enhanced cooperation in economic and infrastructure development, notably Syria’s participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Xi’s strong show of support included pledges of assistance in Syria’s reconstruction and long-term recovery, with China offering its expertise and resources, as reported by China Daily. This visit wasn’t merely about strengthening Sino-Syrian ties; it positioned Beijing as a counterweight to Western influence in the region, bolstering Assad’s international standing.
China’s Long-Standing Support for Assad: A Cautious Approach
Throughout Syria’s decade-long civil war, China consistently supported Assad’s regime, primarily through its repeated use of the veto power in the UN Security Council. Alongside Russia, China consistently blocked efforts to impose sanctions on Assad or facilitate international intervention, effectively shielding him from further global pressure. Unlike Moscow and Tehran, however, China avoided direct military involvement, opting for a less interventionist approach that minimized the risks of entanglement in the region’s protracted conflict. This strategic caution allowed China to maintain influence without bearing the burdens of military commitment that have strained Russia and Iran.
The South China Morning Post highlighted China’s consistent adherence to a non-interventionist foreign policy, prioritizing the prevention of further escalation and regional spillover. Shanghai International Studies University’s Fan Hongda suggested that despite the regime change, China’s policy toward Syria might not undergo a radical shift, emphasizing the importance of regional stability and respect for sovereignty in shaping Beijing’s response.
Uncertainties and the Future of Sino-Syrian Relations
The future of Syrian politics remains uncertain, particularly concerning the positions of the United States and Turkey. China’s approach, however, is expected to remain pragmatic. HTS, while mindful of international criticism, might adopt a cooperative stance with China. However, as Jean-Loup Samaan from the Middle East Institute cautioned in the South China Morning Post, the nature of the post-Assad government will significantly influence future Sino-Syrian relations. The new government’s receptiveness to Chinese investment will be crucial.
Economic Investments and the BRI: A Balancing Act
Prior to Assad’s fall, China had fostered strong economic ties with Syria, particularly through its participation in reconstruction efforts. Syria’s 2022 accession to the BRI facilitated increased Chinese investment, including a notable $37.6 million solar energy project launched in early 2024. However, concerns about US sanctions and the war’s instability tempered Chinese companies’ engagement. Samaan anticipates that Syria’s pressing economic needs will likely ensure the continuation of Chinese investment, although ongoing instability could limit its scope. The uncertain political landscape presents a major concern for Chinese investors, who remain wary of the lingering risks of conflict. Despite these risks, Syria’s strategic location at the crossroads of Asia, Africa, and Europe continues to present attractive investment opportunities.
The Xinjiang Factor and Concerns about Extremism
China harbors concerns about the rise of extremism in Syria, particularly its potential impact on the Xinjiang region. Since the onset of the Syrian conflict, China has closely monitored Uyghur militants who have joined groups like the Turkestan Islamic Party. Reports suggest that Chinese officials have conducted investigations in Syria, especially in Idlib, a stronghold of the Turkestan Islamic Party. While HTS has links to extremist factions, its leader’s distancing from Al Qaeda suggests a more pragmatic approach, potentially mitigating the risk of radical movements spreading to Xinjiang.
A Pragmatic Path Forward
As Syria navigates its uncertain future, China’s approach is likely to remain pragmatic, balancing its strategic interests with regional realities. Assad’s fall represents a significant shift, but China’s emphasis on stability and non-interventionism provides it with the flexibility to engage with various factions. While cautious, its investments are unlikely to be entirely abandoned given Syria’s dire economic situation. Beijing’s ability to maintain its influence in the post-Assad era depends heavily on the new government’s capacity to establish stability and navigate the complex regional dynamics of the Middle East.
