According to the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF), most parts of South Asia, except for some areas in the northern, eastern, and northeastern regions, are likely to experience above-normal rainfall during the 2024 southwest monsoon season (June-September). Above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures are predicted over most parts of South Asia during the season, with the exception of a few areas in the southeastern part of the region where normal temperatures are most likely.
The regional climate outlook for the 2024 southwest monsoon season was developed by all nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of South Asia with support from international experts at the 28th session of SASCOF-28, which was conducted online.
SASCOF reported that moderate El Nino conditions are currently prevailing, and ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions are anticipated in the first half of the monsoon season. La Nina conditions, however, may emerge in the second half. El Nino conditions, which involve periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean, are linked to weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India. According to DS Pai, a senior scientist at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), La Nina conditions, which are the opposite of El Nino, are the primary factor contributing to the likelihood of “above-normal” rainfall during the monsoon season.
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, which are favorable for the Indian monsoon, are anticipated later in the season. Additionally, the snow cover in the northern hemisphere is low. The extent of snow cover in the northern hemisphere during winter and spring typically has an inverse relationship with the subsequent southwest monsoon rainfall over South Asia.
Earlier this month, the IMD predicted that India’s seasonal rainfall will fall in the higher range of “above-normal” and pegged it at 106% of the long-period average (87 cm).
