Following years of largely avoiding Afghan airspace due to the Taliban takeover, airlines such as Singapore Airlines, British Airways, and Lufthansa have resumed overflights. This shift is driven by heightened tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, making the skies above Afghanistan seem like a comparatively safer option.
Three years ago, when the Taliban seized control, air traffic control services in Afghanistan ceased, prompting many airlines to discontinue transiting the country. These services remain suspended, but airlines are now increasingly viewing the airspace between Iran and Israel as more risky. Many carriers had already started routing through Iran and the Middle East after Russia closed its airspace to most western airlines in response to the Ukraine war in 2022.
“Airlines are seeking to mitigate risk as much as possible and they see overflying Afghanistan as the safer option given the current tensions between Iran and Israel,” explained Ian Petchenik, a spokesperson for flight tracking organisation Flightradar24.
Flight data analysis reveals a significant increase in flights over Afghanistan, with more than seven times the number of flights in the second week of August compared to the same period last year. This shift began in mid-April, coinciding with reciprocal missile and drone attacks between Iran and Israel.
While some pilots express concern about flying over a conflict zone, airlines have reassessed the risks, with many citing a lack of reliable information about the situation in the Middle East. “You’re depending on the analysis of your airline,” noted Otjan de Bruin, a commercial pilot and head of the European Cockpit Association. “It’s always safe enough, until proven otherwise.”
Lufthansa Group has confirmed resuming overflights of Afghan airspace since early July. Other carriers that have increased overflights since April include Turkish Airlines, Thai Airways, and the Air France-KLM group. “Based on actual security information, KLM and other airlines currently safely overfly Afghanistan only on specific routes and only at high altitudes,” KLM told Reuters.
Eva Air, based in Taiwan, began overflying Afghanistan in late July, citing safety concerns and current international conditions as factors influencing their route decisions.
The route changes have been facilitated by aviation regulators easing their guidance on Afghanistan. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) lifted its ban on overflights for the entire country in 2022, allowing planes to fly above 32,000 feet. However, the FAA recently issued a revised guideline, allowing planes to fly at lower altitudes over a sliver of north-eastern Afghanistan, the Wakhan Corridor, opening this route to a wider range of flights.
Despite the increase in traffic, concerns remain regarding the lack of air traffic control and the potential dangers of a forced landing in Afghanistan. Flight safety group OPSGROUP acknowledged that although the airspace has been used without incident, there is no guarantee of safety for crew or passengers in the event of an emergency.
Pilots flying over Afghanistan communicate with each other through radio transmissions, following protocols established by the UN aviation body ICAO and Afghanistan’s Civil Aviation Authority. While the European aviation safety regulator EASA acknowledged the presence of extremist groups in the region, they also emphasize that airlines have adopted mitigation strategies to minimize risks.
The memory of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17, which was shot down over eastern Ukraine in 2014, serves as a stark reminder of the potential dangers of flying over active conflict zones.
The recent increase in flights over Afghanistan is driven by a combination of factors, including cost-saving measures for airlines following the loss of shorter routes through Russia and the need to rebuild after the pandemic. With limited international regulations governing airspace safety, airlines are left to make their own decisions based on their assessments of risk.
For airlines seeking to fly from Europe to southern Asia, central Afghanistan offers a more direct route when compared to routes through Russia, Ukraine, or Iran. The route change has been welcomed by some pilots for its potential to reduce travel time and fuel consumption.
