Analysis by AviationValues has shown that airlines still have a lot of aircraft to take in to replace older-technology narrowbody aircraft, such as the A320ceo, A321ceo, and Boeing 737-800, which are the leading single-aisle aircraft globally.
According to the company, among the main narrowbody fleet types, namely the Airbus A320ceo/A320neo, A321ceo/A321neo, Boeing 737-800, and Boeing 737 MAX 8, 59% of the aircraft within this segment are either the Airbus A320ceo or Boeing 737-800. AviationValues pointed out that while they had long production runs, both were replaced by new-generation aircraft, namely the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX 8.
Out of the five narrowbodies, the Boeing 737-800 leads the way (4,696 aircraft), followed by the Airbus A320ceo (4,090), A320neo (1,913), A321ceo (1,652), A321neo (1,279), and Boeing 737 MAX 8 (1,234).
The company pointed out that the A320ceo/A320neo and Boeing 737-800/737 MAX 8 aircraft have served the core narrowbody segment. However, AviationValues noted that more airlines are moving toward larger aircraft, which is especially evident with the A321neo, whose backlog has now surpassed the A320neo’s backlog. That was not the case when Airbus was still building its previous generation single-aisle jets.
In general, AviationValues concluded that as of March, the split between the older generation and newer generation aircraft was 70% to 30%, meaning that there is still a lot of work to do for airlines in order to replace their older aircraft. The issue has been only compounded by the fact that both manufacturers have had to deal with supply chain issues, with Boeing dealing with its own set of unique challenges that have resulted in Airbus delivering more new-generation aircraft. This includes the Boeing 737 MAX groundings following the second fatal crash of the type in March 2020.
According to Boeing’s orders and deliveries data, it has delivered 1,486 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, which includes the 737 MAX 8 and MAX 9, as of March 31. The MAX 7 and MAX 10 have not been certified by the FAA, another consequence of the whole 737 MAX debacle. In comparison, Airbus has delivered 1,952 A320neo and 1,310 A321neo aircraft, totaling 3,262 jets that the European manufacturer has handed over since it began delivering the types in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
While using newer-generation aircraft is no silver bullet to solving the industry’s emissions problems, including the fact that it is going to be incredibly hard to decarbonize completely, they do offer significant fuel and, in turn, emissions savings. According to Airbus, the A320neo has managed to achieve 20% fuel savings versus the ceo, enabled by the European manufacturer’s research & development (R&D) budget. The plane maker noted the efficiency gains from the Sharklets (4%) and the new engines, namely either the CFM International LEAP-1A or Pratt & Whitney PW1100G, which offer 15% fuel savings.
Meanwhile, Boeing has also pointed out that the 737 MAX burns 20% less fuel and, thus, emits 20% fewer CO2 emissions compared to the 737 NG while also having a 50% smaller community noise footprint than the older-generation aircraft that Boeing had offered to its airline customers.
Airlines Still Have a Lot of Older Aircraft to Replace
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