In a stunning development that has sent shockwaves through the region, Islamist rebel forces have captured Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, for the first time since the brutal civil war began over a decade ago. This lightning offensive, launched on Wednesday, represents a significant blow to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and casts a long shadow over the fragile peace in neighboring Lebanon, where a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah had only just taken effect.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a UK-based war monitor, confirmed that the Islamist-dominated rebel alliance, including the jihadist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, now controls Aleppo, with the exception of Kurdish-held areas. Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the SOHR, described the situation starkly: “For the first time since the civil war started more than a decade ago, Aleppo city is out of control of Syrian regime forces.” This marks a dramatic reversal of fortunes for Assad, who, with the crucial support of Russia and Iran, had managed to recapture significant territory in previous years.
The offensive’s success was swift and brutal. The Observatory reported that Syrian and Russian aircraft carried out deadly airstrikes in support of the government, resulting in at least 17 civilian deaths in Aleppo alone. The attacks targeted areas near Aleppo University, adding to the humanitarian crisis already plaguing the region. Idlib, another rebel stronghold, also suffered significant casualties, with Russian airstrikes killing at least eight civilians, including two children and a woman. The accounts from Idlib residents, such as Umm Mohamed, who lost her daughter-in-law in the bombing, paint a heartbreaking picture of the conflict’s devastating impact on ordinary families.
The rebels’ advance met with surprisingly little resistance. They seized dozens of towns across the north, including strategic locations like Khan Sheikhun and Maaret al-Numan. This strategic gain puts them within striking distance of Hama, Syria’s fourth-largest city, where government forces are now reinforcing their defenses. The speed and scale of the rebel advance underscores the weakening grip of the Assad regime, which has relied heavily on Russian air power and Iranian-backed militias, including Hezbollah, for its survival. The heavy losses suffered by Hezbollah in its recent conflict with Israel may have further weakened the government’s capacity to respond effectively.
The fall of Aleppo has sparked international concern. Aaron Stein, president of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, highlighted the diminishing Russian presence and the limitations of their air support, emphasizing the regime’s inherent weakness. Aron Lund of the Century International think tank went further, suggesting that “a government without Aleppo is not really a functional government of Syria.” The United States, maintaining a military presence in northeastern Syria, has cited the Syrian government’s reliance on Russia and Iran, coupled with its refusal to engage with the 2015 UN peace process, as key factors in the current crisis. The UN envoy, Geir Pedersen, warned of severe risks to civilians and the potential for broader regional instability. International reactions have ranged from expressions of concern from Russia and Iran to voiced support for Syria’s territorial integrity from Jordan’s King Abdullah II and prayers for peace from Pope Francis.
While Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Damascus to express support for Assad and blamed the US and Israel for the rebel offensive, the situation remains incredibly volatile. Assad himself vowed to defeat the “terrorists,” highlighting the starkly different perspectives on the ongoing conflict. The fall of Aleppo marks a significant turning point in the Syrian Civil War, raising critical questions about the future of the country and the potential for further escalation in the region.
