On November 27th, a seismic shift occurred in Syria’s protracted civil war. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), along with its allied factions, launched a swift and decisive offensive in Aleppo, seizing control of much of the city with minimal resistance from government forces. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed HTS dominance over key areas, marking a stunning reversal of fortunes after years of conflict. This dramatic takeover followed a period of relative calm in the region since 2016, and is even more surprising in light of simultaneous heavy Syrian and Russian airstrikes targeting rebel-held territories.
The strategic implications of Aleppo’s fall are profound. Charles Lister, a Middle East Institute researcher, aptly described the attack as “potentially game-changing,” underscoring its significance in the broader geopolitical landscape. The offensive comes on the heels of a recent ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon, further highlighting the region’s volatile nature. The Syrian civil war, ignited in 2011 by the Arab Spring protests, has tragically claimed over 500,000 lives and displaced millions. President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, fortified by its allies Russia and Iran, has consistently battled a diverse array of opposition groups, ranging from pro-democracy activists to extremist factions like HTS. Aleppo, a city of immense historical and strategic importance, has long been a pivotal flashpoint in the conflict. The city’s fall to insurgent forces represents a significant blow to Assad’s authority.
This event has sent ripples throughout West Asia. Russia, a staunch ally of Assad, has responded by intensifying airstrikes to regain lost territory. Iran, another key supporter of the Syrian government, has reiterated its unwavering commitment to Assad, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasizing “firm support” during a recent visit to Damascus. Turkey, which backs certain rebel groups, has urged an end to the airstrikes in Idlib, voicing concerns about escalating regional tensions. The United States, alongside France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, issued a joint statement calling for de-escalation and a renewed focus on a Syrian-led political solution under UN auspices.
The timing of Aleppo’s fall coincides with a pivotal moment in US foreign policy. The US Senate is expected to confirm Tulsi Gabbard, a former congresswoman with controversial views on West Asian policy, as the new Director of National Intelligence under President-elect Donald Trump. Gabbard’s past actions, notably her 2017 meeting with President Assad, have drawn considerable criticism. Figures like Nikki Haley have accused Gabbard of legitimizing a leader indicted for war crimes. Gabbard’s expressed doubts about the US’s efforts to remove Assad, her questioning of evidence of chemical weapons use, and her controversial statement that “Assad is not the enemy of the United States” have sparked intense debate about America’s role in Syria.
Gabbard’s anti-interventionist stance contrasts sharply with Trump’s often unpredictable and aggressive foreign policy. Trump’s past actions, such as withdrawing US troops from Syria while simultaneously authorizing airstrikes, have left both allies and adversaries uncertain about his future approach. His “America First” approach has prioritized domestic issues, raising concerns about the potential for US global influence to wane. With Aleppo now under HTS control and Russia’s increased assertiveness in Syria, the incoming Trump administration faces an immediate test in navigating the complexities of diplomacy and intervention. There’s significant concern that Gabbard’s preference for diplomacy over military action could clash with traditional US strategies, possibly straining alliances and hindering future policy decisions.
President-elect Trump’s pledge to bring peace to West Asia remains a challenge. His first term was marked by decisions such as withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and authorizing the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, actions that significantly escalated regional tensions. His administration’s foreign policy has oscillated between isolationism and military assertiveness, leaving both allies and adversaries unsure of what to expect. The partnership between Trump and Gabbard reflects a broader debate within US politics – the ongoing discussion of whether to engage in foreign conflicts or maintain a more restrained approach. As Aleppo endures further violence, this unlikely duo will need to navigate their differing viewpoints to prevent a fragmented foreign policy that could undermine US global standing. How they balance diplomacy and military engagement will not only shape Syria’s future but also America’s role on the world stage for years to come.
