Alumis Inc. (ALMS) Receives Buy Rating and $30 Price Target from HC Wainwright: ESK-001 Poised to Outshine Competitors in TYK2 Inhibitor Market
In a bullish move, HC Wainwright has initiated coverage on Alumis Inc. (ALMS), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing oral therapies for immune-mediated diseases. The firm has assigned a Buy rating and a $30 price target to ALMS, highlighting the promising potential of its lead drug candidate, ESK-001.
ESK-001, a Tyrosine Kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor, is currently undergoing Phase 3 trials for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis (PsO) and Phase 2 trials for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). HC Wainwright believes ESK-001 possesses the highest selectivity within the TYK2 inhibitor space, surpassing even Bristol Myers Squibb & Co’s (BMY) approved drug, Sotyktu (deucravacitinib), and Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd’s (TAK) Phase 3 candidate, TAK-279.
While Sotyktu currently dominates the TYK2 market, HC Wainwright emphasizes that clinical data for ESK-001 suggests a significantly superior profile. This superior profile could drive substantial growth in the TYK2 class and expand its market share in major indications like psoriasis and lupus. The analyst predicts that ESK-001’s strong efficacy has the potential to drive significant growth in the TYK2 market, boosting market share for the class in major indications.
Further bolstering ESK-001’s prospects, its mechanism of action (MOA) in psoriasis is de-risked by the approval of Sotyktu, the first-generation oral TYK2 inhibitor already approved for this indication. Additionally, the 28-week Phase 2 open-label extension (OLE) data for ESK-001 showcases favorable comparisons to Sotyktu.
HC Wainwright projects peak sales of approximately $1.9 billion for ESK-001 in plaque psoriasis and ~$2.0 billion for ESK-001 in systemic lupus erythematosus. While Sotyktu’s patents begin expiring in 2026, generic versions are not expected to hit the market until late 2033. Given ESK-001’s significant advantages against other drugs in the same TYK2 inhibitor class, HC Wainwright anticipates that it could easily outperform Sotyktu in the market.
As of Thursday, ALMS stock was down 2.68% at $10.89.
