Amgen Inc (AMGN) released data from Phase 3 trials of its experimental drugs rocatinlimab and Uplizna (inebilizumab) in an investor update on Tuesday. The HORIZON Phase 3 trial, evaluating rocatinlimab for atopic dermatitis (eczema), included 726 patients. While Amgen reported that rocatinlimab outperformed a placebo in terms of disease severity and extent, the data appeared to fall short of expectations, leading to a dip in Amgen’s stock price.
Despite the less-than-stellar results compared to Dupixent, Goldman Sachs analysts still believe rocatinlimab has strong commercial potential if approved. They highlight the drug’s favorable safety and tolerability profile, convenient dosing schedule, and the large total addressable market for atopic dermatitis, even with the intense competition from drugs like Eli Lilly And Co’s (LLY) Ebglyss (lebrikizumab) and Sanofi SA’s (SNY) amlitelimab. The analysts consider the recent updates encouraging but acknowledge that the stock doesn’t fully reflect the potential value of either asset. Their model predicts peak sales for rocatinlimab in atopic dermatitis to reach approximately $4 billion by 2035, with a 60% probability of success.
While not included in the model, Goldman Sachs sees a significant opportunity for Uplizna in generalized myasthenia gravis, estimating potential sales of around $2 billion. Based on this outlook, the firm maintains a Buy rating and a price target of $370 for Amgen stock.
Looking forward, attention shifts to Amgen’s Phase 2 obesity data, expected by the end of the year. Positive outcomes could lead to a re-rating of the stock to reflect the potential revenue and alleviate concerns about the upcoming loss of exclusivity in the latter half of the decade. Earlier this year, Amgen published data from animal and early-stage human trials of its experimental obesity drug AMG 133 (maridebart cafraglutide) in Nature Metabolism. The journal confirmed the GIPR antagonist and GLP-1R agonist activities in cell-based systems and reported AMG 133’s ability to reduce body weight and improve metabolic markers in obese male mice and cynomolgus monkeys.
As of Wednesday’s close, AMGN stock was down 4.67% at $315.47.
