While some analysts expressed concerns over the initial preorders for Apple’s latest iPhone 16, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives remains steadfastly bullish on the device’s prospects. Ives, who maintains an “Outperform” rating and a $300 price target for Apple shares, cites strong demand signals from Asian supply checks.
He predicts an impressive upgrade cycle, with an estimated 90 million iPhone 16 units sold initially, representing an 8-10 million unit increase compared to the iPhone 15 launch. This momentum is fueled by a sizable market of iPhone users who haven’t upgraded in four years, totaling around 300 million out of the 1.5 billion iPhones in circulation.
Ives expects Apple to capitalize on the holiday season with a series of features rolled out over the coming months, potentially driving iPhone 16 sales to over 240 million units in fiscal year 2025.
China, he believes, will play a crucial role in this success, with Apple focusing on partnerships for large-language models, particularly with Baidu. He sees this as a strategic move to fill a gap in the AI landscape, positioning Apple as a frontrunner with the most sophisticated personal assistant fueled by its new A18 chip.
While acknowledging the potential disruption from Huawei’s trifold smartphone, Ives still anticipates Apple selling around 50 million iPhone 16 units in China during fiscal year 2025.
The analyst emphasizes the significance of Apple’s AI strategy, envisioning a future where over 20% of the global consumer population interacts with AI through Apple devices. This, he asserts, marks the beginning of an “AI-driven iPhone super-cycle” that could propel Apple to record-breaking iPhone sales and a $4 trillion market cap by 2025.
Despite the initial preorder concerns, Ives remains confident that the iPhone 16 will be a major success for Apple, driven by its AI capabilities and a strong demand from a large portion of the global market.
