Austria is holding a general election on Sunday, with the far-right Freedom Party (FPOe) leading in the polls and potentially on track for a historic victory. This would mark a significant shift for the Alpine EU nation, as the FPOe, despite having participated in government multiple times, has never topped a national vote. However, even if they win, forming a government remains a complex puzzle.
The FPOe’s rise in popularity can be attributed to the sharp-tongued leadership of Herbert Kickl, who took over the party in 2021. Since then, the party has capitalized on voter discontent regarding issues like immigration, inflation, and Covid restrictions, mirroring a trend seen across Europe. “I want to vote for Kickl from the bottom of my heart. He needs to solve the problem of migration,” said Angela Erstic, a 69-year-old doctor, at a final FPOe rally in Vienna.
Kickl, campaigning on slogans like “Courageously try something new”, has presented the FPOe as an anti-establishment force. The party currently enjoys around 27% support in polls, ahead of the ruling conservative People’s Party (OeVP) which is at 25%. Despite trailing, the OeVP’s leader, Chancellor Karl Nehammer, has managed to close the gap in recent weeks, emphasizing “stability instead of chaos” as his party’s core message.
While polls point towards a potential FPOe victory, forming a government remains uncertain. Analysts predict that even if they win the most seats, they may not secure enough partners to form a coalition. Nehammer has firmly stated his refusal to work under Kickl, who has declared himself the future “Volkskanzler”, or people’s chancellor, a title historically associated with Adolf Hitler.
An alternative coalition could emerge, involving an unprecedented three-party alliance led by the OeVP, alongside the Social Democrats, who are polling at just above 20%, and potentially the liberal NEOS. However, if the OeVP, which has been a constant presence in government since 1987, achieves a strong result or wins the most seats, a coalition with the FPOe as a junior partner might be considered. Their views converge on “many subjects”, according to Andreas Eisl, a researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute, who suggests that “creative solutions” might be found to work with Kickl.
The potential for a coalition with the FPOe evokes memories of past OeVP-FPOe governments, which were short-lived and ended in controversy. The last such government, led by Sebastian Kurz, collapsed in 2019 after just 18 months due to a corruption scandal involving the FPOe.
The Austrian election presents a complex and potentially historic shift in the country’s political landscape. The rise of the FPOe, while capturing voter frustration, raises questions about governance and the potential implications for the future of Austria. As the votes are counted and the results unfold, the world will be watching closely to see what direction Austria chooses to take.
