Sixteen years after its opening, Bengaluru’s Kempegowda International Airport is poised for a major milestone next month. This greenfield airport, already the third largest in India for domestic traffic and overall passenger volume, is also the fifth largest in terms of international traffic. The airport has recently seen a dynamic shift, swapping the fourth position with Kochi multiple times in the last few months.
Data from aviation analytics firm Cirium reveals two notable trends for September. Firstly, Bengaluru is set to surpass Mumbai in terms of weekly domestic departures. Secondly, Bengaluru will offer more international seats than Kochi. While this growth may be partially attributed to the limited growth of Delhi and Mumbai airports, Bengaluru’s own remarkable progress in operations and infrastructure since its humble beginnings with a small, quickly saturated terminal cannot be overlooked.
Come September, Bengaluru is projected to have 2,379 weekly domestic departures, 54 more than Mumbai’s anticipated 2,325. This significant increase follows a July difference of 110 flights between the two cities. Bengaluru’s rapid growth is fueled by increased flight deployment by both IndiGo and Air India group airlines in August and September. This comes alongside IndiGo’s planned expansion to Goa, Ahmedabad, Varanasi, and Kochi, and Air India Express’s expansion to Vijayawada, Trivandrum, Varanasi, and Pune.
The seeds of this surge were sown during the pandemic. While Maharashtra’s restrictions and higher COVID cases muted travel from Mumbai, Bengaluru saw a spike in departures and passengers for several months. This was under different conditions, including central government restrictions and additional state-level measures.
Bengaluru’s narrow lead in weekly domestic departures is expected to widen in the coming months. Mumbai faces challenges in allocating new slots, while Bengaluru’s second runway and terminal provide substantial capacity for most hours of the day. This advantage ensures continued growth for Bengaluru, making it one of the few metro airports with ample runway and terminal capacity.
For Mumbai, this marks a second significant loss after ceding the busiest airport title to Delhi in 2008-09. However, Mumbai will maintain a significant lead in terms of total seats offered, with 20,730 more seats than Bengaluru, or approximately 3,000 seats per day. This signifies that it will take time for Bengaluru’s overall traffic to surpass Mumbai’s. This difference is attributed to Bengaluru’s higher number of departures on ATRs, which have smaller capacities than the A320/B737 families, while Mumbai has limited turboprop operations. Conversely, airlines have deployed higher-capacity aircraft like IndiGo’s A321s and some Air India widebody flights, contributing to a greater number of seats at Bengaluru, despite limited slot availability.
Towards the end of August, Bengaluru will experience a slight increase in international seats surpassing Kochi. This surge, driven by Air India’s expansion to London Gatwick and IndiGo and Air India Express’s expansion to Abu Dhabi, will push Bengaluru’s seat count above Kochi’s, despite the latter’s own minor capacity increase.
While Bengaluru will have more domestic departures but fewer seats, the international sector presents a different scenario. Bengaluru will offer more seats than Kochi but have fewer departures. This is due to Kochi’s heavy reliance on narrow-body aircraft traffic to the Gulf, while Bengaluru’s growth is driven by a mix of widebody and narrowbody aircraft. The average seats per departure at Kochi is 61,533, while Bengaluru’s is 64,639, a difference of 3,106 seats. This advantage will propel Bengaluru to surpass Kochi in international traffic, securing the fourth position after Delhi, Mumbai, and Chennai.
Bengaluru averages 236 seats per departure, while Kochi averages 194 and Chennai averages 198. This will solidify Bengaluru’s fourth position before it can challenge Chennai.
The Karnataka government is considering a second airport for Bengaluru. The existing airport has faced numerous challenges, including runway repairs, rapid expansion beyond the master plan, and the long wait for metro connectivity. However, Bengaluru’s rapidly growing city with disposable income and substantial airport capacity distinguishes it from Chennai, Hyderabad, and other southern metro cities.
With the anticipated arrival of Navi Mumbai and Jewar airports in 2025, Bengaluru will have further opportunities for growth, benefiting from flights originating from these new airports in addition to its existing routes.
