President Joe Biden and his Republican rival, Donald Trump, will meet for a debate on Thursday, an event offering an unparalleled opportunity for both candidates to try and reshape the political narrative. For Biden, the Democratic incumbent, the debate presents a chance to reassure voters that, at 81, he is capable of leading the US through a range of challenges. Trump, at 78, could use this moment to attempt to move past his felony conviction in New York and convince tens of millions of viewers that he possesses the temperament to return to the Oval Office.
Both Biden and Trump face significant challenges heading into the debate. They enter a political climate marked by public weariness with partisan tumult, with both candidates facing majority disapproval ratings among Americans. They offer sharply contrasting visions on core issues, with Trump promising sweeping changes to the US government if he returns to power, while Biden argues that his opponent would pose an existential threat to American democracy. The debate, occurring just over four months before Election Day, has the potential to significantly alter the trajectory of the race.
Every word and gesture will be scrutinized, not only for what is said but also for how the two candidates interact with each other and how they handle the pressure. Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania and an expert on presidential communications, notes that debates typically reinforce rather than persuade voters. However, she acknowledges that this debate is different given the well-formed, though not necessarily accurate, opinions voters already hold about the two candidates.
Thursday’s debate marks a series of firsts for the two candidates. It will be their first time on the same stage or speaking to each other since their last debate weeks before the 2020 election. Trump skipped Biden’s inauguration following his unsuccessful attempt to overturn his loss to Biden, which culminated in the January 6th Capitol insurrection by his supporters. This CNN broadcast will also be the earliest general election debate in history. It’s the first-ever televised general election presidential debate hosted by a single news outlet, a departure from the traditional format organized by the bipartisan Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988. Under CNN’s rules, independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr did not qualify to participate.
The debate’s format reflects a desire to avoid a repeat of the chaotic 2020 matchups. Biden insisted, and Trump agreed, to hold the debate without an audience and allow the network to mute the candidates’ microphones when it is not their turn to speak. Two commercial breaks will punctuate the debate, another departure from modern practice. The candidates have also agreed to abstain from consulting staff or others during breaks. The advanced schedule of the debate follows a trend among both candidates to respond to nationwide trends toward early voting by shifting the political calendar forward. It remains to be seen whether this early schedule will mitigate or amplify the impact of any missteps during the debate.
Democratic political consultant Phillippe Reines, who helped Hillary Clinton prepare for debates with Trump in 2016, emphasizes the significance of the debate, stating, “You have two men that have not debated in four years. Biden and Trump, they don’t like each other, haven’t seen each other, (are) pretty rusty heading into the biggest night of their lives. That about sums up what’s at stake on Thursday.”
The stakes are high for both sides. The debate comes days after the second anniversary of the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe vs Wade, which ended a federally guaranteed right to abortion and has kept reproductive rights at the forefront of political discourse ever since. It also takes place shortly after the Biden White House took executive action to restrict asylum claims at the US-Mexico border in an attempt to decrease the number of migrants entering the country. Trump has made illegal immigration a central issue in his campaign.
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza also cast a long shadow over the race, as do the candidates’ vastly different perspectives on America’s role in the world and its alliances. Further contrasts will emerge on issues like inflation, tax policy, and government investment in infrastructure and climate change mitigation. The political backdrop also includes the Supreme Court’s pending decision on whether Trump is legally immune for his alleged role in the January 6th insurrection. This occurs weeks after Trump was convicted in New York for his role in a hush money scheme that prosecutors alleged was intended to unlawfully influence the 2016 election.
Biden spent the week leading up to the debate secluded at Camp David with senior White House and campaign aides, as well as a coterie of longtime advisors and allies. A mock stage was built at the compound to simulate the studio where the debate will be held, and Biden’s personal attorney, Bob Bauer, reprised his role as Trump in practice sessions. Aides insist that Biden’s preparations reflect his understanding that he cannot afford a lackluster performance. They believe that the sometimes stodgy orator will rise to the occasion.
Trump, meanwhile, has continued his less structured debate preparation with two days of meetings at his Florida estate, calling allies and supporters, and testing attacks in social media posts and conservative-leaning media interviews. Trump and his aides have spent months highlighting what they argue are signs of Biden’s declining stamina. In recent days, they have begun to predict that Biden will be stronger on Thursday, aiming to raise expectations for the incumbent.
Both campaigns have Georgia on their minds. Atlanta, the host city of the debate, holds symbolic and practical significance for the campaign, with both sides believing that the outcome there will have far-reaching implications. In 2020, Biden secured Georgia’s 16 electoral votes by a margin of less than 12,000 votes out of 5 million cast. Trump pushed Georgia’s Republican leadership to overturn his victory based on false claims of voter fraud, famously being caught on tape stating his desire to “find 11,780 votes.” He now faces state racketeering charges.
Both campaigns held a flurry of events in Atlanta leading up to the debate, including competing events at Black-owned local businesses. Trump called into a gathering at Rocky’s Barbershop in the Buckhead community to discuss his matchup with Biden and question the fairness of CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. Following the debate, Biden and Trump will travel to states they hope to sway in their favor this fall. Trump is heading to Virginia, a former battleground that has shifted towards Democrats in recent years. Biden is set to travel to North Carolina, where he is expected to hold his largest campaign rally yet in a state Trump narrowly won in 2020.
