Former President Donald Trump’s once-strong lead over President Joe Biden in the polls has significantly diminished over the past two months amidst Trump’s ongoing legal battles in Manhattan. A wave of recent polls consistently indicate a shift in favor of Biden, showing him leading Trump in a potential November election matchup.
One notable poll conducted by Marist revealed that Biden holds a 51% to 48% advantage over Trump in a head-to-head race. When third-party candidates are included in the mix, Biden’s lead widens to five points. Similarly, a recent NBC survey found Biden trailing Trump by only two points in a direct matchup, but gaining a two-point lead when independent candidates are considered. Morning Consult’s latest weekly poll echoes these findings, indicating a one-point advantage for Biden over Trump.
This decline in Trump’s polling numbers is particularly significant considering his previous consistent lead over Biden since the end of January. According to RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker, Trump’s lead has decreased by more than four percentage points to 0.2. Notably, the Economist poll tracker now indicates that Trump and Biden have been tied since April 5th, marking the first time they have been neck-and-neck since September.
Biden’s polling boost can be attributed to his increased campaign activity and fundraising efforts in recent months. In contrast, Trump has largely been preoccupied with his legal cases and has held significantly fewer public events than Biden.
Although the race remains close, polls suggest that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy as an independent candidate could potentially sway the election. However, it remains unclear whether his presence will ultimately benefit Biden or Trump. Kennedy Jr. has the potential to draw votes from both Biden and Trump, making his impact on the outcome difficult to predict.
Despite Biden’s gains in the polls, there are concerns that his support among key demographics, such as Black, Latino, and younger voters, may be waning. A recent Harvard Youth poll revealed that Biden’s lead among people ages 18 to 29 has narrowed to eight percentage points, significantly lower than his 23-point margin at this point in the 2020 election cycle. Additionally, an Axios/Ipsos poll indicates that Biden’s advantage among Latino voters has diminished to nine points, compared to 29 points after his first year in office.
Despite his legal troubles, Trump has made his legal woes a central focus of his campaign, accusing prosecutors and judges of conspiring with Biden to undermine his chances of winning the election. Biden, on the other hand, has portrayed Trump as a threat to democracy, citing his role in the January 6th Capitol riots and his appointment of Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade.
The upcoming election will likely revolve around key issues such as immigration, with border crossings reaching record highs under Biden’s presidency and Congress unable to reach an agreement on border controls.
