In a surprising turn of events, former President Donald Trump has emerged as the frontrunner in the upcoming presidential election, should it be held today. This is according to recent polls, including the Harvard-CAPS/Harris and FoxNews polls, which show Trump leading President Joe Biden by about 5 and 3 points, respectively. The Real Clear Politics average indicates a narrower gap of only 1.1%, but swing state polls across the media overwhelmingly favor Trump.
Underlying these horse race numbers are underlying factors that further favor Trump. His personal favorable rating is higher than Biden’s, his job performance is rated better by 11 points, and he is winning on key issues like the economy by wide margins.
However, this race is far from over. A significant 31% of voters, including 44% of Independents, remain undecided. This presents a substantial opportunity for Biden, as does the fact that only 55% of Americans approve of his job performance as president.
During the Trump pre-pandemic years, approximately 70% of Americans perceived the economy as strong, whereas inflation has plagued Biden’s term. Furthermore, immigration, which was a signature issue for Trump, has become a mainstream concern, reaching the top voter concern for a couple of months earlier this year.
Despite facing immense pressure and unprecedented court cases, Trump has managed to survive thus far. The Republican base firmly supports him and views the trials as political charades. Although 62% of Independents believe Trump has committed crimes warranting conviction, they are split on whether the prosecutions are fair and unbiased. Biden’s attempts to portray Trump as a “threat to democracy” have not resonated with Independents, who are divided on this issue.
The most serious issue facing Trump is January 6th. However, the Supreme Court’s review of key issues suggests that the case is unlikely to be resolved before Election Day.
Biden’s primary challenge lies in his inability to raise his low 40s job approval rating. While inflation has eased, prices remain about 20% higher than when he took office, causing voter dissatisfaction. If he fails to improve his ratings, he will need to find a way to reduce Trump’s, aided by his substantial cash advantage for paid media.
His border and Middle East policies further hinder his uphill climb. His border approval rating stands at 38%, while his approval rating on Israel-Hamas has plummeted to a mere 36%. Biden’s shift towards the left on Israel has alienated swing voters, while progressive voters continue to criticize him, leaving him in an unsatisfying position.
Several factors have the potential to alter the election’s dynamics. The upcoming debate, for example, could significantly change the race, with Biden seeking to inspire an upset while Trump may face challenges due to unfavorable terms and high expectations.
Trump’s choice for vice president could also shake up the race. A wise move would be to forge an alliance with former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley to win over her supporters. Other potential candidates include Senators Tim Scott and Marco Rubio, who, according to voters, would increase their likelihood of supporting Trump.
The Republican Party’s vice presidential pick presents a unique opportunity to differentiate the 2024 ticket from 2020. By selecting a moderate candidate, Trump could attract more independent-minded voters. However, a highly conservative choice could cost him support as he seeks to unify the Republican Party.
Legal rulings will also play a significant role, particularly the New York case and the Supreme Court’s determination of the extent of presidential immunity. While efforts to disqualify Trump from the ballot were swiftly dismissed, the potential for conviction and imprisonment remains. An acquittal or hung jury in New York could provide a substantial boost for Trump.
Finally, minority voters appear ready to distance themselves from the Democratic Party, primarily due to economic concerns. Although they typically return on Election Day, Biden’s low approval ratings among minority voters are unusual for a Democratic president: 66% among Black voters, 53% among Hispanics, and 37% among Asians.
Hispanic Americans are particularly pessimistic about their economic recovery compared to Black voters, making their potential departure more likely. Notably, only 29% of Hispanic voters believe progress has been made in controlling inflation, while 42% of Black voters perceive an improvement.
Biden has responded to these developments with a forceful speech on race at Morehouse College, and we can expect more of such efforts from his camp. Conventions, once major events, now offer little news aside from the Trump VP pick, prompting audiences to favor debates instead. The next key date for evaluating the race is Labor Day, when campaigns embark on the final stretch. Thus far, Trump holds the advantage.
