Polling shows that most Americans are not excited about a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in the 2024 election. However, CNN polling analyst Harry Enten believes that this could actually be to Biden’s advantage.
Writing on Twitter, Enten says that an unenthusiastic electorate may be Biden’s “secret weapon” against Trump because he consistently fares better in polls among likely voters than among all registered voters. “We saw it in Marist this morning,” he explained. “We’ve seen it in Marquette and NY Times in the past. Biden performs better among likely or certain voters. I wouldn’t take the RV data at face value, especially if folks continue to be uninterested in the election.”
While appearing on CNN on Monday morning, Enten also pointed to a new poll from Marist showing that Biden held a seven-point lead among voters who say they “definitely” plan to vote in the 2024 presidential election. Ever since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, Democrats have scored major wins in special elections while also limiting Republicans to historically low gains in the House of Representatives during the 2022 midterm elections. Democrats’ strength in these elections has been winning over highly engaged voters who frequently vote in all elections and not just presidential elections every four years.
Enten said that the same dynamic that’s benefiting Biden in polling has been playing out in special elections where Democrats have been “dominating.” Watch the video below or at this link.
