Binary Price Action: Agriculture vs. Treasury Bonds

To achieve success in investing, active participants must actively monitor and create indicators that are not widely followed by mainstream media outlets. Trading presents challenges, demanding both discipline and adherence to a well-defined set of rules. In this analysis, we will examine a unique juxtaposition of sectors and their binary price action, specifically the monthly charts of the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Historically, for nearly 17 years, the agricultural and treasury sectors have exhibited an inverse relationship. However, in the past four years, a notable bounce against this trend has emerged. This raises questions about potential changes in the market dynamics. Will DBA reverse to the downside, or will TLT reverse higher? Alternatively, could DBA experience a breakout? In my opinion, the developments in this market segment are highly significant and warrant close observation.

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