Bitcoin analyst Benjamin Cowen has issued a cautionary note, suggesting that the current Bitcoin market might be replicating patterns observed in 2019, potentially hindering expectations of an immediate bull run. Cowen’s analysis, presented on his podcast, delves into the historical accuracy of the Pi Cycle Top indicator and its implications for the present market cycle.
Cowen identifies striking similarities between the current market structure and 2019, when Bitcoin briefly surged above a key moving average before experiencing a pullback. He draws parallels to the market behavior in 2016, noting similar patterns in moving averages. Emphasizing the importance of analytical tools during periods of market downturn, when “cooler heads prevail,” Cowen underscores the value of such indicators as opposed to relying on them during euphoric uptrends.
Cowen highlights a notable trend of diminishing peaks in the indicator across successive market cycles, raising the possibility that it might not reach the traditional threshold in this current cycle. Looking ahead, Cowen suggests that the market could follow a similar trajectory to that of 2019. However, he cautions that price action may begin to recover before the indicator reaches its bottom. While maintaining a cautious outlook, Cowen stresses the need for patience and continued monitoring of market trends. He encourages viewers to stay informed and make decisions based on a broad spectrum of data points rather than relying solely on any single indicator.
Despite the recent volatility in the market, Cowen remains in the “2019 camp,” anticipating a pattern similar to that year rather than the frenzy witnessed in 2021. The upcoming Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets event on November 19 is expected to provide a platform for exploring the influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class in greater detail.
