Max, CEO and founder of the media platform Because Bitcoin, has presented an intriguing perspective on Bitcoin’s potential performance leading up to and following the upcoming U.S. presidential election. In his recent podcast, Max delved into Bitcoin’s historical price action around past U.S. elections, uncovering a compelling pattern: bear markets tend to find their bottom well before elections, followed by a gradual upward movement culminating on election day. This trend, according to Max, remains consistent regardless of whether a new president is elected or an incumbent remains in office, making it a potentially significant factor in Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
Max observed, “You put in a bear market bottom, you grind up into the election, and then you have an aggressive expansion to the upside immediately following.” This pattern of post-election rallies has extended for approximately one year in previous cycles. Notably, Bitcoin reached its peak 393, 404, and 372 days after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections, respectively.
Drawing on this historical trend, Max suggests that Bitcoin could potentially see a bull market peak between October and December 2025. He highlights, “That would mean that from right now because we’re not at the election yet, we potentially have another 400 days left of upward price expansion.”
Max also pointed out the intriguing alignment of Bitcoin halvings with U.S. elections, noting that recent halvings have occurred just before elections, frequently coinciding with volatile price action. This was evident in April 20, when Bitcoin prices stood at $63,850, only to rally to $71,400 exactly one month later on May 20.
While cautioning that past performance doesn’t necessarily guarantee future results, Max’s analysis provides a compelling framework for understanding Bitcoin’s potential trajectory in relation to political cycles. This information could be valuable for investors seeking to navigate the complexities of the crypto market, particularly as Bitcoin’s influence as an institutional asset class continues to grow.
